The college football odds screen lit up like a Christmas tree on Monday morning because of an extreme weather event that is likely to impact a bunch of games in the southeast this weekend.
Hurricane Ian is making its way through the Caribbean and is expected to make landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida on Thursday morning and then move up into Georgia and the Carolinas by Saturday. The storm track could still move, but bettors were confident enough in the forecast to get out in front of the totals for the Week 5 slate.
Wind is what has the biggest impact on totals. It completely alters a team’s plans, as accurately throwing the ball downfield may not be an option. Safeties can play closer to the line and teams can put nine or more defenders in the box to stop the run. It makes a team one-dimensional to play in those sorts of conditions and leaves little to the imagination about the plays that can be run.
Even though we’re still five days away from the games, we’ve seen under steam account for line moves of a touchdown or more on some totals for the affected games.