Today we are going to look at havoc rate and its correlation to takeaways. I’m going to highlight several teams that underperformed their overall havoc rate. Havoc rate is an advanced statistic to determine how disruptive a team’s defense is. Havoc rate = TFL+Passes Defended+Forced Fumbles+QB hurries divided by total plays. I am going to look at a team’s havoc ranking in coordination with their overall takeaway ranking. Once we do that, we will pair it with said team’s overall returning defensive production.
There are five teams ranked in the top 30 in overall havoc rate who ended up ranking 80th or worst in takeaways. The top 30 teams in havoc rate produced an average of 21 takeaways. This leaves room for positive regression in the takeaway department. This is a more nuanced way to look at turnover margin/takeaways than just saying, “Team A had a +10 turnover margin, so they will regress,” or “Team B had a -10 turnover margin, so they will have positive regression.” Let’s dive into those five teams.
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Western Michigan
- 4th in Havoc Rate
- 13 takeaways (112th ranked)
- 92nd in defensive returning production