No more Week 0. No more theorizing. It's finally time for a full schedule of college football odds and college football betting.
As you can imagine, I'm pretty excited. So is the rest of the online sports betting world.
College Football Best Bets: Week 1 Predictions
Each week, after I've handicapped the whole board, I will publish my five best plays from the wider canon of NCAAF odds.'
I'll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don't have to go on faith alone.
If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion's Edge,' my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM. More on that in a little bit.
NC State has received a ton of love this summer as an ACC title threat, which helps to account for the 80% of tickets that are backing the Wolfpack on the road. Holy public, Batman!
NC State could be really good this year. However, when you're a road favorite of 10 or more points against a legitimately good in-state rival, I think that's the market blowing this game out of whack. Especially when it's Week 1, and there might be some feeling out and some growing pains.
We all know I like Mike Houston, and I was probably a little too early to the Pirate buffet because of that. But I think here in Year 4, the rebuild in Greenville is probably now complete. Houston is going to have his best team, and ECU should be live in this game.'
I do think NC State's offense will ultimately figure out a way to win this game, but I expect it to be a competitive football game for 60 minutes, and at +11.5, we might even be safe from a garbage time touchdown that pushes this thing to two scores.'
Give me ECU plus the points, with a moneyline sprinkle at +325 as well.
Play: ECU +11.5
This isn't technically a home game for Georgia, as it's the Chick-fil-A Kickoff game played in Atlanta. That said… yeah. It's pretty much a home game for the defending national champs.
Oregon has a decent ATS record against SEC teams over the last several years, but the bucket of points with the Ducks seems a bit square for my liking, with about two-thirds of tickets backing the dog.
I'd play Oregon if I was forced to pick a side. However, I think there's a much better play on this game.
Kirby Smart is a defensive head coach. Oregon's new head coach, Dan Lanning, was the defensive coordinator at Georgia last year for the championship. The Bulldogs have lost gobs of talent from last year's team.'
There will definitely be a feeling-out period early in this game, so I went to do some work on the first-half total – currently 26.5 at BetMGM, with -130 juice on the over.
My findings definitely pointed in one direction. In the five previous season openers that Georgia has played under Smart against FBS opponents, here are the first-half scoring totals: 7, 12, 27, 21, 24.
I love this 1H under.' If you are worried about getting burned at a key number, you can buy the half-point, but this is one of the week's best plays.
Play: Oregon/Georgia 1H Under 26.5
If you listened to my podcast with Phil Steele earlier this week, you've heard the case for negative regression in East Lansing.'