Week 4 of the college football calendar has arrived, and with it comes a new table of NCAAF odds.'
Accordingly, I've got a fresh set of picks to hand out.
College Football Best Bets: Week 4 Predictions
After I've handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my five best plays from the wider canon of college football odds. (I'm including a bonus pick this week since I like the Thursday Night Sun Belt game so much.)
I'll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don't have to go on faith alone.
If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion's Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM.'
Last week's college football picks went 5-0. You can't do better than perfect, folks.
Here's one of the two superior Thursday Night Football games this week. (The other is my Mountaineers heading down to Blacksburg to defend the Black Diamond trophy.)
While Eers/Hokies is obviously my preferred watch, this Sun Belt game is actually much more interesting from a handicapping perspective.'
Coastal Carolina has been a big name in college football over the last two seasons and is off to a 3-0 start this season. Its opponent, Georgia State, is 0-3 and just lost to Charlotte, who was fresh off a loss to FCS William & Mary.'
Strangely, though, the line here is just Coastal -2.5. This is noticeable not just because of the surface-level gap between teams but also because -2.5 is one of those bait lines that sportsbooks will toss out to attract gobs of public action.
About 70% of tickets are on Coastal Carolina here, yet the line is already starting to creep down from -2.5 to -2.'
This will be one of the biggest sharp/square college football betting splits of the entire season. I liked it so much that I had to staple the Panthers onto the front of my picks here as a bonus cap.
Play: Georgia State +2.5
Georgia State is 0-3 and just lost (at home) to Charlotte. You know… Charlotte, that lost to William & Mary. That Charlotte.
Coastal Carolina (3-0) has been a big name the last couple years in CFB. Tonight, they go to GaSt. The line: Coastal -2.5. SMELLY.
Panthers +2.5.
— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) September 22, 2022
JJ McCarthy is officially one of the top Heisman favorites – he's one of the biggest movers in the' Heisman Trophy odds market since the season started.'
There's a reason Harbaugh was willing to risk locker room mayhem to get this guy in the game.'
Let's also add here that Maryland's defense remains mediocre. Last year, with a less dynamic offense, Michigan hung 59 on the Terps.
Perhaps you see where I'm going with this.