Week 11 of the college football calendar has arrived, and with it comes a new table of NCAAF odds.'
Accordingly, I've got a fresh set of picks to hand out.
College Football Best Bets: Week 11 Predictions
After I've handicapped the whole board each week, I will publish my five best plays from the wider canon of college football odds.
I'll provide a short explanation of why I like each bet, so you don't have to go on faith alone.
If you prefer an audio version of this weekly article, you can always subscribe to The Lion's Edge, my weekly handicapping podcast for BetMGM.'
Cannot wait to bet Arkansas next week
— Chase Kiddy (@chaseakiddy) November 6, 2022
I think Brian Kelly is going to be awesome in Baton Rouge, but do we really think LSU is a top-10 team? Or did they simply play their way to a one-point win over a flawed Alabama team with a high-leverage play at the end?
Every week, I talk about two key principles. College football is an emotional sport with dramatic week-to-week swings that's played by 19 and 20-year-old kids. And, more broadly, in college football betting, it's important to buy low and sell high.
That all leads us to Arkansas – a flawed team for sure, but one that's a noticeably light home dog in this spot against a top-ranked team coming off a loss to Liberty.'
Everything about the fundamentals of this spot screams Arkansas as a sharp spot. The ticket/handle splits confirm it: About 70% of market-wide tickets are on LSU, but nearly three-quarters of the overall betting handle is behind Arkansas.
Play: Arkansas +3
“Do I think LSU is the number 7 team in college football? Of course I don't”
After a huge win against Alabama, @chaseakiddy sees the LSU coming back down to earth this weekend against the Razorbacks
For more of Chase, download @BetMGMTonight: https://t.co/HS6QfL1IvO pic.twitter.com/MhoreI4hO2
— BetQL (@betqlapp) November 9, 2022
Yes, we're still selling high on teams that outperformed their median, and that means fading Notre Dame a week after its landscape-altering win over previously undefeated Clemson.
One key football betting stat in this spot: Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS when they have to lay points this season. The Irish have not been a good bet when they need to win by margin.
That's not to say I have zero skepticism about Notre Dame in this spot. After being wildly inconsistent throughout the first half of the season, the Irish have rattled off three straight double-digit wins against UNLV, Syracuse and the aforementioned Tigers.'
Many of Notre Dame's favorite spots came early in the year – and early in Marcus Freeman's first year as a head coach – so there's a chance Notre Dame ATS stats should be flushed down the toilet. It could be a fundamentally different handicap now than seven weeks ago.
However, I still feel this is too many points to give a Navy squad that's been very competitive throughout the season despite its record. The Midshipmen are 5-2 ATS as a dog and 4-0 ATS outside of Annapolis; this game will be played at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.
Play: Navy +16.5