The seven-game Week 0 slate served as the perfect appetizer for the first full week of college football games that last through Labor Day weekend. We tap into several markets for our college football best bets for Week 1 based on the best NCAAF odds.
There are plenty of intriguing storylines entering Week 1, like how new quarterbacks will perform at three of the top four programs in the country (Georgia, Ohio State, and Alabama), and in Alabama's case, what quarterbacks will we see? In addition, how will new coaches perform in their first games at new schools, like Luke Fickell at Wisconsin and Hugh Freeze at Auburn?
One thing to keep in mind is that no team has ever lost its first game and gone on to make the College Football Playoff.
Here are our best college football best bets (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confid ence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
College football best bets: Week 1
- Kaleb Johnson (Iowa) Over 0.5 rushing touchdowns vs. Utah State (-160 via DraftKings) ????
- Emani Bailey (TCU) Over 68.5 rushing yards vs. Colorado (-114 via FanDuel) ?????
- South Alabama + 6.5 vs. Tulane (-110 via BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel, and bet365) ????
- Buffalo-Wisconsin largest lead of the game Over 30.5 (-130 via DraftKings) ????
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Week 1 college football schedule and odd s
(odds via DraftKings)
- East Carolina vs. Michigan (-36)
- Virginia vs. Tennessee (-28)
- Colorado vs. TCU (-20.5)
- Ohio State (-30) vs. Indiana
- South Carolina vs. North Carolina (-2.5)
- Nevada vs. USC (-38)
- LSU (-2.5) vs. Florida State
College football predictions for Week 1
Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Cade McNamara (transfer from Michigan) is questionable to play in this game after injuring his quad in practice on Aug. 13. If he does play, mainly because he is in his first game in a new system, we expect the Hawkeyes coaching staff to employ a conservative approach with McNamara not asked to do too much in the passing game.
The strength of the Iowa offense is to line up in two tight-end sets and run the ball between the tackles. In seven games where Kaleb Johnson had double-dig it carries last season, he scored touchdowns in four. And with a road trip to Iowa State next week, we expect a vanilla offensive game plan from the Hawkeyes to not show the Cyclones too much, with Johnson being the primary benefactor.
Iowa had a bottom-nine scoring offense (17.7 points per game) last season, but bet365 and DraftKings each have their team total set at 33.5, so Johnson figures to be responsible for one of its four projected touchdowns.
TCU Horned Frogs running back Emani Bailey led the Big 12 in yards per carry last year (8.1), though he only had five-plus carries in a game twice last season. However, he should get the bulk of the backfield work early on with Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado in the NFL and No. 1 recruit Trey Sanders still learning the system.
TCU faces a Colorado team with 86 new players and 53 transfers, the most in the portal era. The Buffaloes fi nished tied for the worst record (1-11) among all FBS schools last season and only scored 179 points and 21 touchdowns on offense, both worst in the Pac-12. If the Buffaloes struggle again early on in Coach Prime's new system, that means more possessions for TCU. And as near three-touchdown favorites in the game, the Horned Frogs should be salting the game away late with their running game.
This is primarily a five-star play from a value standpoint, as there is a significant discrepancy compared to DraftKings' line of O/U 81.5 rushing yards (Over +100/ Under -130), as FanDuel provided 17 extra yards of cushion with which to win this wager.
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The No. 24 Tulane Green Wave are ranked in the AP preseason poll for the first time in school history and are riding high off of a 12-2 sea son, culminating in a 46-45 win in the Cotton Bowl over USC. However, there is something fishy about the Green Wave laying less than a touchdown in their home opener to South Alabama, which has us loving the idea of going against the betting public.
South Alabama has 19 starters back from a team that won 10 games last season. It would mean a lot to the Jaguars to upset an AP top 25 team for the first time since 2016. This is a four-star play, as Tulane must replace do-it-all running back Tyjae Spears, who totaled over 1,800 yards and 21 touchdowns. Meanwhile, South Alabama brings back a 3,300-yard passer (Carter Bradley), a 1,000-yard rusher (La'Damian Webb), and two 800-yard receivers (Devin Voisin and Caullin Lacy) that combined for 11 receiving touchdowns.
There is no betting value to be gained by shopping around as all sportsbooks are aligned with the +6.5 spread at standard -110 juice, but this would become our most confident five-star play if the line ever got to +7.
For decades, Wisconsin quarterbacks have been considered mere game managers and players who were asked to hand off to their stud running backs and get out of the way. But under new head coach Luke Fickell (who has the fourth-most wins in FBS over the last five seasons while with Cincinnati) and offensive coordinator Phil Longo, the Badgers have vowed to move to an “Air Raid” offense and ditch their more traditional ground-and-pound game.
Tanner Mordecai, the SMU transfer, threw for 3,524 yards and accounted for 35 total touchdowns, and Longo recently praised Mordecai for the improvements his quarterback made in the offseason.
The OC has a proven track record utilizing the Air Raid offense, starting with his 2014 Sam Houston State team that broke the single-season FCS passing touchdown record. Russell Wilson is the only Wisco nsin quarterback to ever throw for 3,000 yards. Longo's UNC team ranked 28th nationally in plays per minute last season, and the Badgers' new-look passing attack should open up running lanes for an offense that finished top-five in the Big Ten in rushing yards per game (179.8), yards per rush (4.7), and 2.1 yards before contact per rush, while continually facing stacked boxes.
Thus, there is a path to the Badgers taking advantage of most of their early possessions and boat-racing to a big lead while setting up backdoor cover opportunities for Buffalo to cover the +28 full-game spread.
FanDuel offers +120 odds for Wisconsin to cover the alternate spread of -30.5, and odds that short have us confident the team can at least hold a 31-plus-point lead sometime during the game.
College football best bets made 9/1/2023 at 6:39 a.m. ET.
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