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Wednesday's college basketball game picks
Arkansas State is one of the most profitable teams to the Over in the Sun Belt, cashing it in eight of 11 league games, including a 7-2 O/U record in its nine home games overall. Those trends are not surprising considering the Red Wolves rank first in league play in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and free throws attempted per field goal attempt (41.5%), combined with a defense that ranks dead last in the Sun Belt in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 3-point percentage allowed (38.2%).
James Madison is one of the oldest teams in college basketball (it ranks ninth in average D-I experience) and plays at the 41st-fastest tempo in the country, so it would be wise to maximize possessions in this game and take advantage of Arkansas State's defensive deficiencies. The Dukes have been red-hot from beyond the arc in back-to-back wins, combinin g to shoot 20-for-46 (43.5%) from 3-point range in the two games. Arkansas State will look to run the Dukes off the 3-point line (it ranks in the top six in lowest percentage of opponents' field goal attempts coming from 3-point range), but James Madison still ranks in the top 40 nationally in 2-point shooting percentage (and is the best 2-point shooting team in the Sun Belt), with so many perimeter threats opening up driving lanes.
Caesars and bet365 are the only two of our top sports betting sites offering standard -110 juice at a total of 160 points, while BetMGM is on the high end of the market with an O/U of 160.5.