College basketball has a solid slate of 18 games to compete with the final week of the NFL regular season, and we have you covered with our daily college basketball player props and best bets for Sunday based on the best college basketball odds.
The Big Ten takes center stage for Sunday's college basketball slate with three games that will have plenty of weight come Selection Sunday. Elsewhere, No. 15 Memphis is the only AP top 25 team in action, facing an SMU squad that is looking for an upset that will put it in the driver's seat for a regular-season conference title.
Here are our college basketball player props and best bets for Sunday (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Sunday's college basketball schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Michigan (-3.5) vs. Penn State
- UMass vs. Dayton (-8.5)
- SMU vs. Memphis (-7)
- Maryland vs. Minnesota (-1.5)
- Michigan State (-2.5) vs. Northwestern
Sunday's college basketball best bets
- Terrance Williams II (Michigan) Over 11.5 points vs. Penn State (-125 via bet365) ????
- Jahmir Young (Maryland) Over 1.5 3-pointers made vs. Minnesota (+140 via bet365) ???
- Indiana State -1.5 vs. Northern Iowa (-110 via FanDuel, BetMGM) ????
- SMU +7.5 vs. Memphis (-118 via FanDuel) ?????
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Sunday's college basketball player props
Michigan's Terrance Williams II has scored 13-plus points in four of the last five games. He has been a marksman from beyond the arc, making three or more 3-pointers in all of those games with 13-plus points, and faces a Penn State defense that has allowed opponents to shoot 36.1% from beyond the arc in league play.
The Nittany Lions have also allowed their three Big Ten opponents (Maryland, Ohio State, and Michigan State) to secure 42.7% of their missed shots, and those offensive rebounds often result in open kick-outs for 3-pointers. Penn State has allowed 80-plus points in its three Big Ten games, which means there should be plenty of opportunities for Williams to fill the stat sheet.
This line has risen from an O/U of 10.5 overnight, but we are still willing to lay the heavy juice to back the Under at the slightly higher total. We are getting a slightly better price at bet365 than DraftKings, as the latter has its Under juiced to -130.
It's absurd to think that we can get +140 odds at bet365 (+130 at DraftKings) for Maryland point guard Jahmir Young to make multiple 3-pointers, something that he has done in three consecutive games and four of the previous five. Minnesota is coming off an impressive road win at Michigan, but the Wolverines still attempted 19 3-pointers in that game, and the Golden Gophers have allowed a 37% 3-point shooting percentage in three league games.
Maryland is shooting an abysmal 19% from beyond the arc in Big Ten play thus far, but Young has made multiple 3-pointers in two of those three games, and we would expect him to settle from the perimeter more than challenge Minnesota's long frontcourt that is responsible for it allowing a top-40 2-point percentage.
Sunday's college basketball game picks
For the last two seasons, Indiana State has outperformed its act ual record, per ShotQuality, with its heavy emphasis on a rim and three offense. The Sycamores finished 8-20 in 2021 (11-17 based on ShotQuality), and 22-13 in 2022 (23-12 based on ShotQuality), and their rim and three metric ranked 9th and 1st, respectively, in that span.
Indiana State is already on pace to lead Division-I in that metric again this season, and its elite shot selection has paid off in leading D-I in effective field goal percentage and a top-six rating in 2-point and 3-point shooting percentage. The Sycamores' only two losses have come to preseason top 25 teams (Alabama and Michigan State), and they should prove to be too much for a Northern Iowa team that ranks outside the top 300 in 3-point defense (36.2% allowed).
This is a four-star play, as Indiana State is 7-3 ATS as a favorite this season, while Northern Iowa is under .500 (12-13) ATS in league games since the start of last season. FanDuel and BetMG M are the only two shops offering a line of -1.5, as all other competing shops are at -2.
This SMU-Memphis AAC matchup gets our most confident five-star play, as everything that the Mustangs' extended matchup zone does negates the Tigers' biggest strengths.
Memphis excels in transition, in large part because it pushes the pace at the 18th-fastest tempo in the country. In addition, the Tigers shoot just 33.2% as a team from beyond the arc (188th in the country), which is an issue against a Mustangs defense that limits opponents to just 26.7% (seventh-best in D-I) from the perimeter.
While Memphis will want to look for quick hitters and take the first open available shot, SMU makes its opponents work every possession, as its opponents spend nearly 19 seconds before getting a shot up per offensive possession. The Mustangs have covered both games as road underdogs this season, and we expect them to cover again in that role in what may seem like a curiously low line to the average bettor.
FanDuel is our go-to shop despite paying slightly higher juice, as no other sportsbook offers a line as high as SMU +7.5 (the Mustangs are most commonly at +6.5 at competing shops).
College basketball best bets made 1/7/2024 at 6:09 a.m. ET
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