The college sports landscape will soon shift exclusively to basketball, and we have you covered with our daily college basketball player props and best bets for Saturday based on the best college basketball odds.
Since the new year began, AP top-25 teams have taken care of business for the most part, going 18-3 SU. One of those two losses was by No. 23 Providence to Seton Hall after star player Bryce Hopkins exited the game with a season-ending torn ACL.
Outside of the two ranked vs. ranked matchups on Saturday, 17 AP top-25 teams are in action, with nine playing on the road. Will they continue to hold serve as they have done for much of the week, or will more upsets be on tap?
Here are our college basketball player props and best bets for Saturday (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saturday's college basketball schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Marquette (-5.5) vs. Seton Hall
- North Carolina vs. Clemson (-3)
- Kentucky vs. Florida (-3.5)
- Providence vs. Creighton (-11)
- Auburn (-2.5) vs. Arkansas
- Ole Miss vs. Tennessee (-12)
- Iowa State vs. Oklahoma (-3)
- Texas Tech vs. Texas (-6)
- Colorado State vs. Utah State (-2)
Saturday's college basketball best bets
- DJ Burns Under 11.5 points vs. Virginia (-120 via bet365) ????
- Milan Momcilovic Under 1.5 3-pointers made vs. Oklahoma (+110 via DraftKings) ???
- Indiana team total Under 73.5 vs. Ohio State (-110 via DraftKings) ????
- TCU +9.5 vs. Kansas (-110 via DraftKings) ????
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Saturday's college basketball player props
NC State center DJ Burns has scored 13-plus points in three of the last four games, and five of the previous seven. However, he's now facing a Virginia defense that held him to eight points in last year's 63-50 home loss. More importantly, though, it forced Burns into six turnovers, as Cavaliers head coach Tony Bennett's post-doubling scheme frustrated the big man.
Burns is tied for second among all Wolfpack players with 157 possessions but is averaging just 0.97 ShotQuality points per possession, which ranks in the 21st percentile. By comparison, the three other NC State players with 144-plus possessions have all averaged 1.07 or more points per possession, which ranks in the 50th percentile or better.
Thus, Burns is due for some scoring regression, especially with the Cavaliers defending inside the arc at a top-20 rate (43.7% 2-point percentage allowed).
We are making this wager at bet365, as DraftKings charges -125 in juice for the same number.
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Offer not applicable in Ontario.
Freshman Milan Momcilovic leads all Iowa State regulars with a 44.4% 3-point shooting percentage, but opponents have caught onto his shooting prowess and limited him to one or fewer 3-pointers in three of the last four games, during which he has made five of 12 attempts.
Though that percentage is still high, defenses do not respect his ability to put the ball on the floor and are not sagging off of him as much defensively, especially after he made nine 3-pointers in his first two collegiate games.
Oklahoma ranks 18th in the country in defending the perimeter (18.4%) and entered its game against North Carolina before the holiday break ranked in the top 13th percentile in limiting open catch-and-shoot opportunities, per Synergy.
Since then, Central Arkansas and Monmouth combined to shoot 34.8% (16-for-46) from beyond the arc against Oklahoma, but we expect Porter Moses' squad to be dialed in defensively for this Big 12 opener.
With bet365 offering lower +105 odds to back the Over, we are heading to DraftKings for slightly better value.
Saturday's college basketball game picks
Ohio State's defense ranks in the top 36 in near-proximity attempts (26%), per Haslametrics. That means its compact defense forces opponents to beat it with mid-range jumpers or on the perimeter consistently. The Buckeyes rank top 70 in the country in 3-point percentage allowed (30.7%) despite allowing the 92nd-most 3-point attempts per field-goal attempt.
Thus, Ohio State has the perfect foil for an Indiana offense that shoots just 33.5% from beyond the arc (166th) compared to a top-50 2-point shooting rate. And if the game is close late, the Hoosiers will not help themselves if they continue to shoot just 68% as a team from the free-throw line.
Indiana was given a boost in its last game with senior point guard Xavier Johnson's return after a seven-game absence. However, he was held scoreless in 15 minutes. Though he is the team's best shot creator, his return is not likely to open up holes in a Buckeyes defense that allows assists per made field goal at the sixth-lowest rate in the country.
We are wagering on Indiana's team total instead of the full game Under, as the Hoosiers have allowed an average of 86.5 points in their last two games, while they have scored just 68.5 points per game in their four losses. The juice is as high as -120 at bet365 for this wager, so we are heading to DraftKings for the best price.
This line may appear low to many, as TCU narrowly edged Georgetown by one point before beating Hawaii by 14 in its only two true road games of the season. However, Jamie Dixon's squad has performed well at Allen Fieldhouse in recent years, and the Horned Frogs benefit from playing in what will be a less-than-usual hostile arena with students still on break.
TCU won at Kansas 83-60 last year, Bill Self's second-largest home loss with the Jayhawks. And though Kansas won the return meeting in Fort Worth, TCU was one of four teams to hold the Jayhawks to 63 or fewer points last season. Before that, the Horned Frogs lost by four at Kansas in 2022 and by eight in 2021, but the Jayhawks' 59 points in that 59-51 defeat were tied for their third-lowest output of the season.
Kansas is as solid of a half-court defensive team as there is in the country, but we look for TCU to beat it down the floor in transition (the Horned Frogs play at the 32nd-fastest pace in the county). TCU averages the fourth-lowest average time of possession per offensive trip, and that is a much better strategy than consistently expecting to beat Kansas late in the shot clock.
Defensively, TCU entered its last loss against Nevada with a rim rate that ranked in the 10th percentile, per Synergy, so its pack-line defense should help limit Hunter Dickinson and his 18.5 points per game.
BetMGM is the only other sportsbook offering a line as high as +9.5, but it charges a price of -115 to back the underdogs, making DraftKings our go-to shop.
College basketball best bets made Saturday at 6:47 a.m. ET
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Related pages
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