Eighteen of college basketball's AP-ranked teams are in action on a loaded Saturday slate, and we have you covered with our daily college basketball player props and best bets for Saturday based on the best college basketball odds.
There are several mouth-watering college basketball matchups on tap for the start of the weekend, headlined by a showdown between No. 1 Arizona and No. 3 Purdue at the Indy Classic, along with the CBS Sports Classic matchup between No. 9 North Carolina and No. 14 Kentucky.
Elsewhere, No. 25 Northwestern looks to get over the sting of losing as 23.5-point favorites to Chicago State on Wednesday night, as they made history by becoming the only team in the previous 40 years to beat an AP No. 1 team at home and also lose to a team with a .250 or worse winning percentage (min. 10 games) in the same season, per OptaSTATS.
Here are our college b asketball player props and best bets for Saturday (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Saturday's college basketball schedule and odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
- LSU vs. Texas (-7)
- Kansas (-7.5) vs. Indiana
- Baylor (-3) vs. Michigan State
- Clemson vs. Memphis (-2.5)
- Arizona (-1) vs. Purdue
- North Carolina (-1.5) vs. Kentucky
- Alabama vs. Creighton (-7.5)
- NC State vs. Tennessee (-9.5)
Saturday's college basketball best bets
- A.J. Hoggard (Michigan State) Over 12.5 points vs. Baylor (-125 via DraftKings) ????
- Jamal Shead (Houston) Under 5.5 assists vs. Texas A&M (-115 via bet365) ????
- Indiana State -13.5 vs. Ball State (-110 via BetMGM) ????
- Arizona-Purdue Over 159.5 (-110 via Caesars) ????
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Saturday's college basketball player props
Michigan State's shocking 4-5 start is largely due to not getting consistent scoring from anyone besides Tyson Walker, the only player on the team averaging more than 10.3 points per game. However, we expect Izzo's team to play with desperation against the undefeated Bears and for the head coach to scheme ways to get Walker some offensive help from backcourt mate A.J. Hoggard.
Hoggard is making just 25% of his 3-point attempts this season, but is due for positive regression after making nearly 33% from deep last season. After scoring in single digits in the first three games, he scored 11-plus points in six straight. Hoggard is shooting with more volume of late, with double-digit shot attempts in back-to-back games.
With Baylor doing a solid job of defending the perimeter this season (it ranks 15th in 3-point percentage allowed), we expect Hoggard to use his physicality to get into the lane with regularity today, so he should see five-plus free-throw attempts for the fourth time in six games.
DraftKings and bet365 offer the same price and number for this wager.
Houston has played three teams inside KenPom's top 60 (Xavier, Dayton, and Utah), and point guard Jamal Shead has recorded five or fewer assists in all of those games, as the team has cracked 70 points just once in those contests. The Cougars should be in for another rock fight against Buzz Williams' Aggies, who play at the 324th-slowest tempo in the country.
Texas A&M makes it difficult to run sets against with the rate it pressures at, plus it is always willing to trap everywhere on the court. However, it also blends its game plan seamlessly into a defense that switches everything and, therefore, forces a lot of isolation basketball, which is not all that conducive to sharing the rock.
We look for A&M to use the same defensive game plan that forced Memphis into more turnovers (16) than assists (15) in the last game. And while the Tigers assisted on 15 of 25 made field goals, the Aggies will not continue to allow assists on nearly 56% of opponents' buckets. Even if they do, there will not be enough baskets to go around in a game with a low total of 131 (down from an opening line of 132.5).
We are making this wager at bet365, as DraftKings charges slightly higher -120 juice to back the Under.
Saturday's college basketball game picks
Indiana State head coach Josh Schertz has done a fantastic job in just two seasons at the helm, and his team looks poised to surpass last year's win total of 23. Schertz has the Sycamores offense firing on all cylinders, as they rank in the top five nationally in effective field goal percentage, 3-point shooting percentage (41.2%), and 2-point shooting percentage (61.6%). In addition, they are also top 20 nationally in scoring (88.5 points per game), assists per game (18.2), and scoring margin (+17.6).
Indiana State was always expected to beat Southern Indiana in its last game as a 21.5-point favorite. Still, the 98-54 bludgeoning was especially impressive considering the Sycamores were without leading scorer Isaiah Swope (19.7 points per game), and the team had to cancel multiple practices earlier in the week due to illness to numerous players. Now they have had a week to get fully healthy, and while Ball State head coac h Mike Lewis is familiar with the Sycamores personnel after losing to them 83-71 on the road last year, much of his players are not, as the Cardinals returned just 21.5% of the minutes from last year's team and less than 20% of the scoring.
Ball State's roster turnover is a big reason it was picked to finish eighth in the MAC, and given that it ranks 351st in the country in 3-point percentage allowed, it is not equipped to defend Indiana State's versatile five-out system.
All of our best sportsbooks are in unison with the 13.5-point spread at -110 odds.
This matchup between Arizona and Purdue from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis is a possible Final Four preview and should be one of the most aesthetically pleasing games of the day. The Wildcats will do what they do best and push tempo (they rank fifth in KenPom's adjusted tempo) to get easy baskets in transition without mammoth Zach Edey roaming the paint. However, Purdue is plenty used to playing games at a fast pace, as it has played in seven games that saw 75 or more possessions, and it won them all.
These two teams rank in the top eight of ShotQuality's adjusted metrics and, by its calculations, have a combined O/U record of 14-3. While it projects this game to have 153 combined points scored (a 76.6-76.4 Purdue victory), we expect even more scoring with the hot shooting of Caleb Love to continue (he has made 38.5% of his 3-point attempts in December).
In addition, Purdue's offense can be rattled when its guards are pressured, but that is not entirely Arizona's defensive strength, ranking 80th in turnover rate forced. It certainly is not Purdue's calling card, as it forced turnovers on just 14% of opponents' possessions (336th).
While all of our best sports betting apps are in unison with a total of 159 .5, FanDuel and BetMGM charge a slightly higher price of -115 to back the Over.
College basketball best bets made 12/16/2023 at 7:06 a.m. ET
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