Now that the Super Bowl matchup is set bettors can turn their primary attention to college basketball, and we offer our top college basketball player props and best bets for Monday based on the best college basketball odds.
AP top 25 teams continued to fall throughout the weekend, as No. 7 Kansas, No. 8 Auburn, No. 11 Oklahoma, No. 15 Baylor, No. 16 Dayton, and No. 24 Colorado State either lost to lower-ranked or unranked teams. In the Jayhawks' case, they dropped to 4-3 in Big 12 play, which matches the worst seven-game start in conference play in the Bill Self era.
You know there is a lot of parity in college basketball when it is not yet February, and North Carolina is the only unbeaten major conference team in league play.
Here are our college basketball player props and best bets for Monday (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1 -to-5-star scale).
Monday's college basketball best bets
- Tyrese Hunter (Texas) Under 10.5 points vs. Houston (-125 via DraftKings) ???
- Duke-Virginia Tech Over 146 (-110 via DraftKings) ????
- Northwestern State +21.5 vs. McNeese (-114 via FanDuel) ???
- Alabama State-Texas Southern Under 132.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ????
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Monday's college basketball schedule and odds
(Odds via Caesars)
- Duke vs. Virginia Tech | Spread: Duke -3 | Total: 146.5
- Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. Texas A&M Commerce | Spread: Texas A&M Corpus Christi -2.5 | Total: 136
- Houston vs. Texas | Spread: Houston -5 | Total: 130.5
Monday's college basketball player props
Longhorns point guard Tyrese Hunter has scored 10 or fewer points in five of the previous six games. And in Texas's last three losses since Jan. 13, Hunter had averaged just seven points per game and never attempted more than seven shots.
With the Longhorns as big underdogs and with KenPom projecting them for just 62 total points, we expect the Cougars to use the nation's best effective field goal percentage defense and No. 1 ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency to shut down the Texas attack, and key in on its facilitator to do so.
Between Hunter and backcourt mate Max Abmas, one of them will draw the primary defensive attention of Jamal Shead, who per EvanMiya, has the best defensive performance rating in the country by a wide margin. In addition, Synergy data reveals that opponents entered t he weekend averaging 0.752 points per possession when Shead is their primary defender, and he also leads the country in defensive win shares.
Against Kansas State over the weekend, Shead held Wildcats point guard Tylor Perry to three points on 1-of-5 shooting from 3-point range. We expect a similar performance from Hunter and will hope Kelvin Sampson assigns Shead to him and not Abmas.
Monday's college basketball game picks
Duke and Virginia Tech split their two regular season meetings last year, and each had at least 147 total points scored. In fact, their last three meetings have exceeded this projected total, which has us overlooking the fact that five of Virginia Tech's last six home night games against AP-ranked opponents have seen 146 or fewer points scored.
Per Evan Miya, Duke's five-man lineup of Kyle Filipowski, Caleb Foster, Jared McCain, Mark Mitchell, and Jeremy Roac h ranks in the top 10 in the country in adjusted efficiency margin. And while the Blue Devils rank first in ACC play in adjusted offensive efficiency and turnover rate (13.4%), their defense is further behind, ranking eighth in effective field goal percentage and ninth in 3-point percentage allowed (35.2%).
Virginia Tech's motion offense has been on fire during its three-game winning streak, averaging 83.7 points per game and scoring 1.09 points per possession in every game in that span. The Hokies are coming off a blistering 1.40 points per possession game against Georgia Tech, and the Over has cashed in every game during their winning streak. The Over is also 21-10 in Virginia Tech's ACC games since the start of last season, and Mike Young's complex offensive sets are extremely difficult to prepare for, especially with just one day off.
DraftKings is our go-to shop for this wager, as it is the only one offering a total as low as 146, and is 1.5 points worth of value compared to BetMGM which offers an O/U of 147.5.
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We have a lot of respect for McNeese, one of the most under the radar mid-major teams that owns the nation's longest active winning streak (13 games). The Cowboys own road wins over VCU, UAB, and Michigan, and have won their last two Southland home games by an average of 28 points. However, Northwestern State just saw McNeese on its home floor three weeks ago, and that familiarity should serve the Demons well in covering this big number.
The Demons held the Cowboys to just 0.93 points per possession in the first meeting. And while McNeese displayed its usual marksmanship from 3-point range (it shot 35% from beyond the arc in the first meeting) as it leads D-I in 3-point shooting percentage (41.5%), Northwestern State was disruptive on defense. The Demons forced 15 turnovers and held the Cowboys to 15-for-35 shooting from 2-point range.
The Demons have been better on short rest this season, covering the spread in two of the three games with one day off, compared to McNeese's 1-2 ATS record in that split. In addition, McNeese may not give Northwestern State its full attention after a 37-point laugher against New Orleans on Saturday, so there are plenty of ways we can backdoor a cover as well.
BetMGM is the only other one of our best sports betting sites offering a spread as high as +21.5 (all others are at +21), making FanDuel's -114 price the best value on the best number available.
As Texas Southern has done for the last several years, it does not mind taking its beatings in non-conference play through mid-December, knowing it only makes it stronger in SWAC play.
The Tigers challenged themselves against t eams that play many different styles, from Purdue's heavy post-action with Zach Edey to Virginia's often impenetrable pack line defense. And though the Tigers allowed 82-plus points four times in non-conference play, we are not undervaluing their defense, as they are the SWAC's No. 1 rated team in effective field goal percentage defense and 2-point percentage allowed (40.9%).
Texas Southern's interior defense will be its best angle to knock off the 5-1 Hornets. Alabama State is the second-to-worst 2-point shooting team in the country, making 40.3% of its shots inside the arc. Thus, the Hornets will likely have to settle for perimeter jump shots, which is not their forte, as they are shooting 29.1% from beyond the arc through six league games. Alabama State is tied atop the league standings because of an elite defense, and we expect the Under to cash for the fifth time in its eighth league game.
FanDuel offers a total as l ow as 131.5, so we are getting great value on the 132.5 at DraftKings, especially with not having to pay up in juice to lock in at a higher number.
College basketball best bets made Sunday at 7:19 p.m. ET
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