The calendar has turned to March, which means we are in for a month of “madness” in conference tournaments and “The Big Dance.” Read on for our college basketball best bets for Tuesday based on the top NCAAB odds.
In addition to the handful of conference tournaments that are already underway, the Big South, Northeast, and Ohio Valley Conference tournaments all commence Wednesday. Elsewhere, Texas looks to keep its hopes for a top seed in the NCAA tournament alive when it travels to in-state rival TCU.
Here are our college basketball best bets for Wednesday (odds via BetRivers, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our top college basketball picks and our best March Madness betting sites.
Wednesday's college basketball schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Texas vs. TCU (-2.5)
- Xavier vs. P rovidence (-3.5)
- Maryland (-1.5) vs. Ohio State
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
College basketball best bets for Wednesday
- Spread: TCU -1.5 (-120 via FanDuel) vs. Texas ???
- Moneyline: Providence ML vs. Xavier (-164 via Caesars) ????
- Total: Penn State-Northwestern Under 134.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ???
- Upset: UNLV ML (+118 via BetRivers) vs. Utah State ???
College basketball top picks
Texas' motivation entering this game is somewhat deflated considering Kansas just locked up the Big 12 regular season title ahead of Saturday's showdown with the Longhorns. Texas' heavy isolation offense was thwarted by Baylor on Saturday, as the team was held to 0.95 points per possession. It is especially concerning that the Longhorns could not ta ke advantage of the Bears being without leading scorer Keyonte George, who missed all but six minutes of the nine-point loss.
TCU's defense entered its one-point road win over Texas Tech ranked 252nd (per ShotQuality) but is much more susceptible to off-ball action, which is not the Longhorns' forte.
TCU has lost five of seven games, but four were when leading scorer Mike Miles Jr. was injured. Miles' 24 points against the Red Raiders were his second-most since Nov. 11. His ability to initiate an offense that ranks fourth in the Big 12 in field goal percentage and fifth in points per game will go a long way in securing a big home victory.
To eschew the steeper -120 odds, bettors will have to lay -2.5 points at other competing sportsbooks.
When Providence was thumped by 18 points at UConn last Wednesday, it brought the home record of the B ig East's top five teams (Marquette, Xavier, Creighton, Providence, and UConn) to a combined 38-4, with their road records at an even .500 (21-21).
The Friars are a perfect 15-0 at home this season and have won 34 of their last 35 at home overall. Head coach Ed Cooley challenged his team's toughness after getting out-rebounded 40-20 in the loss to UConn, and the club responded by out-rebounding Georgetown by seven in a 20-point road win.
The backboards should not be as much of an issue against a Xavier team without its leading rebounder and the third-leading rebounder in the conference, forward Zach Freemantle (8.1 rebounds per game). In addition, Providence is built to negate the Musketeers' biggest strength, as the Friars allow a league-low 29.6% from 3-point range, while Xavier makes a conference-high 38.9% of its 3-point shots in league play.
This is a matchup of the seve nth and 11th-highest-scoring teams in the Big Ten. And even though Penn State ranks second in the league with a 46.7% team field goal percentage, its 317th-ranked tempo limits its offensive ceiling.
Northwestern is an offensively challenged bunch, shooting 41% from the field (worst in the Big Ten), and has topped 70 points just once in its last eight games. We are not overreacting to the Wildcats allowing 75 points in a road loss to Maryland, as the Terrapins were an unconscious 14-of-22 from 3-point range. Northwestern has won three consecutive home games, and those opponents shot a combined 11-for-57 (19.3%) from deep.
That makes this a confident three-star play despite facing a Nittany Lions offense that ranks in the top 10 nationally in 3-point shooting percentage (38.8%).
UNLV has lost four consecutive games in this rivalry, with three of the four by at least nine point s. However, the Runnin' Rebels lost by four at Utah State earlier this year, which is encouraging despite being the victim of a 3-point barrage (the Aggies made 11-of-25 from deep). However, we expect that shooting to regress on the road, as Utah State has averaged just 64.5 points per game in its last two road games and made 28.9% (13-of-45) of its 3-point attempts.
The Aggies rank 54th nationally in the percentage of points coming from beyond the arc, which is concerning if further road shooting regression looms Wednesday. In addition, this is a solid three-star play, as we expect more production from UNLV point guard EJ Harkless. Harkless was held to two points in 13 minutes after playing through foul trouble in the first meeting but has scored in double figures and averaged 21.8 points in the 10 games since.
BetRivers is the only sportsbook offering better than +110 moneyline odds to back UNLV.
College basketball best bets made 3/1/2023 at 6:13 a.m. ET.
Here are our best March Madness betting sites:
- FanDuel: No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000 | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
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