A 15-game college basketball slate provides bettors ample opportunities to make money before the Super Bowl. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Sunday based on the top NCAAB odds.
Despite losing four of its top six scorers from a team that went to the Sweet 16 a year ago, the Purdue Boilermakers have reloaded and have the second-best odds at most major sportsbooks to win the national title. The Big Ten's best gets another chance to defend its No. 1 ranking on the road against Northwestern in the most high-profile college basketball game of the day.
Here are our college basketball best bets for Sunday (odds via BetMGM, PointsBet, BetRivers, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our top college basketball picks and our best March Madness betting sites.
Sunday's college basketball schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Purdue (-5) vs. Northwestern
- Michigan State vs. Ohio State (-3)
- Youngstown State (-2.5) vs. Cleveland State
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
College basketball best bets for Sunday
- Spread: Northwestern +5.5 (-115 via BetMGM) vs. Purdue ????
- Moneyline: Youngstown State (-132 via FanDuel) vs. Cleveland State ????
- Total: Mount Saint Mary's-Fairfield Under 124.5 (-110 via PointsBet) ???
- Upset: Michigan State (+140 via BetRivers) vs. Ohio State ???
College basketball top picks
Any team that will compete with or have a chance at beating Purdue needs experience (especially in the backcourt) and good enough interior defense to make sure Boilermakers center Zach Edey does not go on a complete scoring spree. Northwestern checks all those boxes, with the 72nd-most minutes continuity from last year's team (Rutgers and Indiana, who beat Purdue, ranked 52nd and 66th in the same metric), and senior guards Boo Buie and Chase Audige combine to average 31.3 points per game.
Last season, Northwestern struggled to a 15-16 record after allowing 70 points per game and a 43% opponent's field goal percentage while averaging six steals a game. The Wildcats are now 17-7, allow 62.1 points per game and 40.4% opponent's field goal percentage while averaging more than eight steals per game. In addition, Northwestern's interior defense ranks 17th nationally (44.9% 2-point percentage allowed), which is an excellent recipe for it to compete against a national title contender on its home floor.
BetMGM and FanDuel are the only sportsbooks offering Northwestern +5.5 (all others are at +5), but FanDuel charges slightly more in juice (-120).
Youngstown State improved to 20-6 with its 10th win in 11 games on Friday night and has been a model of consistency over the last half-decade with five consecutive winning seasons under head coach Jerrod Calhoun.
The Penguins already own a 14-point home victory over Cleveland State this season, a game in which it averaged a blistering 1.33 points per possession and assisted on 19 of 30 made field goals. Cleveland State has won four consecutive league home games but by a combined 18 points. In addition, Youngstown State is the Horizon League's most efficient offense (per KenPom) and should live at the free throw line against a Vikings defense that allows free throws at the highest rate in league play.
The Penguins are 9-3 ATS on the road this season and have covered 10 of 12 games when on equal rest as their opponents (both teams played Friday night). However, we're not paying up too much at FanDuel for backing them to win outright.
Mount Saint Mary's and Fairfield are two of the four most profitable Under teams in the MAAC, cashing the Under in 28 of their 47 combined games. The condensed MAAC scheduling has also proved profitable in backing these teams' Unders. The Under has cashed in four of Fairfield's five games where they had just one day off, and five of Mount Saint Mary's eight-such games.
These two teams rank ninth or worse in adjusted offensive efficiency in league play. Furthermore, the Stags are built to negate the Mountaineers' league-best 3-point shooting arsenal, holding opponents to just 25.4% shooting beyond the arc in conference games.
At some point, Ohio State w ill live up to its No. 45 NET ranking despite losing 10 of 11 games. However, BetRivers provides too much value on Michigan State's moneyline odds to pass up.
Malaki Branham, EJ Liddell, Jamari Wheeler, and Joey Brunk combined for 75 of Ohio State's 80 points in a home win against the Spartans last year, but none of those players are on this year's underperforming roster. Michigan State is battle-tested with a respectable 6-7 Quad 1 record, and head coach Tom Izzo consistently gets his teams to play their best basketball at the end of the season.
College basketball best bets made 2/11/2023 at 9:52 p.m. ET.
Here are our best March Madness betting sites:
- FanDuel: No Sweat First Bet up to $3,000 | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftK ings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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