Sunday marks the last day of the college basketball regular season, as it is all postseason play starting next week. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Sunday based on the top NCAAB odds.
By day's end, all conference tournament brackets will be official, as teams from the Big Ten and AAC play their final regular-season games. And congratulations to Southeast Missouri State and Fairleigh Dickinson on punching the first two tickets to the NCAA tournament. SEMO especially came a long way from starting the season 1-11 against D-I competition and is in the “Big Dance” for the first time since 2000.
Here are our college basketball best bets for Sunday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our top college basketball picks and ou r best March Madness betting sites.
Sunday's college basketball schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Houston (-5.5) vs. Memphis
- Maryland vs. Penn State (-4)
- Michigan vs. Indiana (-4.5)
- Northwestern vs. Rutgers (-5)
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
College basketball best bets for Sunday
- Spread: Liberty -4 (-110 via Caesars) vs. Kennesaw State ????
- Moneyline: Lafayette ML vs. American (-140 via DraftKings) ???
- Total: Army-Colgate Over 148.5 (-115 via FanDuel) ????
- Moneyline: Penn State ML (-169 via Caesars) vs. Maryland ???
College basketball top picks
Kennesaw State won the only regular-season meeting between these two teams th at finished tied atop the ASUN with a 15-3 league record, which gave the Owls homecourt advantage in this game. However, Liberty won three straight conference tournament championships from 2019-21. Its experience in these big games against a Kennesaw State that never even reached a conference championship since the league formed in 2002 is why we're making this a four-star play.
Entering their first meeting, the Owls ranked in the second percentile nationally in defending off-ball screens, per Synergy, and we expect the Flames to exploit that more in this rematch. In addition, Liberty should have a better plan to attack a Kennesaw State defense that ranks best in turnover and steal percentage in ASUN play after committing 17 turnovers in the first meeting.
Though each of these teams last played on Thursday, the Leopards are the more rested team after avoiding a first-round game, which American had to fight through on Tuesday against Bucknell.
American lost six consecutive games to end the regular season. And while Lafayette lost its final four games, it played admirably in the absence of point guard CJ Fulton for two of them as he dealt with a lung issue. One of those losses was a four-point home loss to heavy league favorite Colgate, and that game was tied at the half. Fulton scored just nine points in 30 minutes, but he is one of the best on-ball defenders in the league, and his defense against Lehigh's leading scorer Keith Higgins was instrumental in pulling the upset.
Higgins was held to nine points (he had scored in double figures in 13 consecutive games before that) and harassed into five turnovers. Thus, Fulton's presence is a big reason we expect the Leopards to cover (and win outright) for the 20th time in their 33rd game.
Playing a team for the third time in two mon ths would suggest a solid lean to the Under, given the familiarity between the teams. However, Colgate is so good offensively, and Army is so underwhelming defensively that we're making the Over a strong four-star play.
There were 31 more points scored in the second meeting than the first time these teams met, so any adjustments made were to exploit defensive weakness. Colgate ranks tops among all D-I teams in effective field goal percentage and 3-point shooting (41.1%), while just one individual Black Knights defender has a positive Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR), per EvanMiya. Colgate has averaged 80-plus in nine of its last 12 conference tournament games, and this may be its best offensive team yet.
Laying the extra juice at FanDuel is worth it considering it's the only sportsbook offering a total lower than 149.5.
Penn State is the most experienced D-I team in th e country, starting five seniors, which adds extra emotion to the last home game of the season on Senior Night. The Nittany Lions face a Maryland team that is just 2-8 on the road this season, with its only league road win coming against two-win Minnesota. In addition, Penn State entered the weekend as ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi's “last team in” the NCAA tournament 68-team field. Thus, we do not see the Terrapins pulling a road upset in a game of this magnitude and with so many emotions surrounding many of the Nittany Lions' last home game.
Maryland is just 3-7 against the spread on the road, and Penn State will use the momentum of a three-game road-winning streak to end on a high note in its home finale.
College basketball best bets made 3/5/2023 at 7:29 a.m. ET.
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