The first ticket to the NCAA tournament will be punched Saturday as Tennessee Tech meets Southeast Missouri State for the Ohio Valley Conference tournament championship. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Saturday based on the top NCAAB odds.
Notre Dame's upset of Pittsburgh on Wednesday night created a three-way logjam with Pitt, Miami, and Virginia all tied at 14-5 in league play with one game remaining. In addition, the ACC takes centerstage as arguably college basketball's greatest rivalry takes place with North Carolina hosting Duke.
Here are our college basketball best bets for Saturday (odds via BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our top college basketball picks and our best March Madness betting sites.
Saturday's college basketball schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Kansas vs. Texas (-3)
- Alabama vs. Texas A&M (-2)
- Tennessee vs. Auburn (-2)
- Kansas State vs. West Virginia (-5)
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
College basketball best bets for Saturday
- Spread: Baylor -7.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Iowa State ????
- Moneyline: Tennessee ML vs. Auburn (+115 via Caesars) ???
- Total: UConn-Villanova Under 138.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ????
- Upset: Duke ML (+146 via FanDuel) vs. North Carolina ???
College basketball top picks
Iowa State has lost four consecutive games (three by at least six points) and now has further turmoil after the dismissal of senior gua rd Caleb Grill for “failing to meet the team's expectations,” as the Cyclones stated. Iowa State was already reeling with four consecutive losses and has not won a road game since a two-point victory over TCU on Jan. 7. Now the Cyclones face a Baylor team that has won seven straight home games by an average of 11.9 points per game, including victories over two of the Big 12's top four teams (Kansas and Texas).
This is a four-star play since Grill's absence in this game should not be understated, as he was the team's leading 3-point shooter (36.8%) and one of the only Cyclones capable of consistently stretching a defense. In the first meeting against Baylor, he shot 5-of-9 from 3-point range, while only one other Cyclones player made a 3-point basket. That will help a Big 12-worst Baylor defense (per KenPom's adjusted efficiency) to make the Cyclones one-dimensional and help pack the paint to mask the fact that the team allows the worst 2-point shooting percentage (56.6%) in league play.
BetMGM is the only sportsbook charging standard -110 juice to lay -7.5 points.
Preparing for Tennessee was already difficult, given that the Volunteers are Division I's top-ranked defense per adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and 3-point percentage allowed (25.1%). Now the task is even more difficult for Auburn as the team is coming off a painful loss to Alabama, where the Tigers squandered a 17-point lead with less than 10 minutes remaining. For perspective on the excruciating loss, consider that the Crimson Tide had a win probability as low as 7.3%, per KenPom.
Auburn is not as invincible at home in “The Jungle” as in other years under Bruce Pearl. The Tigers are 3-2 in their last five at home, with the two losses by a combined 24 points to the league's top two teams (Alabama and Texas A&M). < /p>
The season-ending injury to point guard Zakai Zeigler will hurt the Volunteers going forward. Still, Tennessee becomes slightly better defensively in the short term, with Santiago Vescovi taking his place in the starting lineup.
Since Dan Hurley took over as Connecticut's coach in 2019, just one of seven meetings with Villanova has had more than 140 combined points scored. The two teams have combined for fewer than 129 points on three occasions, and we should once again be in for a rock fight considering this is the worst 3-point shooting Villanova team of the bunch.
The Wildcats still bomb away from the perimeter at the eighth-highest rate in the country despite ranking 208th (33.6%) from 3-point range. Now they face a UConn team that is elite at running teams off the 3-point line, allowing the fourth-fewest percentage of 3-point attempts per field goal attempt in the country. Thus , this is a four-star play as Villanova will be forced to make tough twos, which it has not shown it can do consistently enough this year.
When Duke beat North Carolina 63-57 at Cameron Indoor on Feb. 4, the Tar Heels were beaten at what they pride themselves most on, as they were outscored 20-2 in fast-break points. Thus, the Tar Heels' 0.86 points per possession were alarmingly low and a sign of how much they miss a stretch forward like Brady Manek from last year's team when having to operate in the half-court.
This is a three-star upset play, as Duke was without the services of freshman forward Dariq Whitehead in that first meeting, and his length at 6-foot-7 will limit the effectiveness of North Carolina's guard tandem of R.J. Davis and Caleb Love, who are each responsible for 23.7% or more of the shots the team takes when they are on the floor.
FanDuel is the only sports book offering higher than +140 odds to back Duke on the moneyline.
College basketball best bets made 3/4/2023 at 6:41 a.m. ET.
Here are our best March Madness betting sites:
- FanDuel: No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000 | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
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