A light 15-game college basketball slate is the perfect appetizer ahead of an intriguing weekend schedule. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Friday based on the top NCAAB odds.
The Xavier Musketeers are the only AP-ranked team in action Friday. Xavier leads the Big East by a half-game, but one slip-up could cost it, as three teams (Marquette, Creighton, and Providence) are all within one game of the Musketeers.
Here are our college basketball best bets for Friday (odds via BetMGM, DraftKings, PointsBet, and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our top college basketball picks and our best March Madness betting sites.
Friday's college basketball schedule and odds
(odds via DraftKings)
- Xavier (-7) vs. Butler
- Saint Louis vs. Dayton (-5.5)
- Akron (-1.5) vs. Ohio
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
College basketball best bets for Friday
- Spread: Butler +7.5 (-120 via FanDuel) vs. Xavier ???
- Spread: Dayton -4.5 (-120 via FanDuel) vs. Saint Louis ???
- Total: New Mexico-Air Force Under 143.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ???
- Moneyline: Youngstown State (-160 via PointsBet) vs. Purdue Fort Wayne ???
College basketball top picks
At first glance, this seems like a curiously low spread, with Big East-leading Xavier facing a Butler team that has lost five of six games, with four of those losses coming by at least 21 points. However, perhaps the analytics are factoring in the loss of Xavier forward Zach Freemantle (15.2 points, 8.1 rebounds per game), as the Musketeers have yet to be tested on the road since his two-game absence.
This is a three-star play as Freemantle's absence opens things up for Butler forward Manny Bates, whose 15 points on 6-of-11 shooting, six rebounds, and four assists buoyed the Bulldogs to a win in their last game over St. John's.
Butler has not been a home underdog often, but since 2019, it is 4-0-1 as a dog at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Thus, we expect the Big East's least efficient offense (per KenPom) to succeed against a Xavier defense that ranks eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency in league play.
We are happy to pay the extra juice at FanDuel for the extra point, as other sportsbooks are as low as +6.5.
Dayton is 12-1 straight-up at home this season and covered seven of those 13 games. Its only home loss was by one point to Atlantic 10-leading VCU, but Saint Louis does not possess nearly the same menacing defense as the Rams.
This is a three-star play, as the Flyers rank as the best in the A-10 in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field-goal percentage, and 2-point shooting (54.7%), and they're knocking down 38.5% of their 3-point attempts in league play (second-best).
They should have plenty of clean trips against a Saint Louis defense that is dead-last in turnovers forced (15.3% of opponents' possessions). In addition, the Billikens are 4-7 against the spread in conference games and have covered just once in the previous five.
Once again, bettors can pay slightly extra juice at FanDuel to avoid the -5.5 found at competing sportsbooks.
This game is a distinct clash of styles, as New Mexico is the Mountain West's highest-scoring team at 81.8 points per game, while Air Force ranks 10th out of 11 teams at 66.4 points per game. However, this is a three-star play on the Under, as the Falcons tend to play higher-scoring games as favorites (the Over has cashed in seven of their nine games as favorites) and lower-scoring games as underdogs (the Under is 10-6 when Air Force is a 'dog).
We expect Air Force's 351st-ranked pace to win out over New Mexico's 27th-fastest adjusted tempo (per KenPom), especially if the Falcons fall behind early and the Lobos take the air out of the ball. Air Force has lost six straight (four by double digits) but has shown no sense of urgency offensively, scoring 53 or fewer points in three of its last four.
This line has dropped from an opening number of 144.5, and we would feel comfortable playing it down to 142.
Youngstown State faces a worthy opponent in Purdue Fort Wayne, which went 15-6 in league play last year. However, the Penguins have won nine of 10, and point guard Dwyane Cohill and his top-130 offensive player rating (per KenPom) are a big reason for their offensive resurgence this season.
Last year, Youngstown State ranked ninth in the league in shot selection (per ShotQuality). However, the Penguins are a much more cohesive offensive team this year with a top-40 national ranking in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field-goal percentage, 3-point shooting (38.7%), and 2-point shooting (54.2%).
College basketball best bets made 2/10/2023 at 6:10 a.m. ET.
Here are our best March Madness betting sites:
- FanDuel: No Sweat First Bet up to $3,000 | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Online Sportsbooks | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)