Tuesday's college basketball slate offers the perfect blend of new conference tournaments starting and others that are in the championship round. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Tuesday based on the top NCAAB odds.
Five new conference tournaments (A-10, ACC, WAC, MAAC, and Big West) begin Tuesday. And though five conferences tournament championships will be played Tuesday (NEC, Horizon, CAA, WCC, and Summit), just four automatic bids will be claimed, as Fairleigh Dickinson has already earned its spot in the 68-team field with Merrimack being ineligible for the NCAA tournament.
Here are our college basketball best bets for Tuesday (odds via FanDuel, DraftKings, and Caesars; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday's college basketball conference tournament schedule and odds
- Gonzaga (Off) vs. Saint Mary's
- Utah Tech vs. Stephen F Austin (-3.5)
- Abilene Christian vs. Cal Baptist (pick'em)
- Notre Dame vs. Virginia Tech (-6.5)
College basketball conference tournament best bets for Tuesday
- Spread: Boston College -5.5 vs. Louisville (-120 via FanDuel) ????
- Moneyline: Merrimack vs. Fairleigh Dickinson (-155 via DraftKings) ???
- Total: Binghamton-Vermont Under 137.5 (-110 via Caesars) ???
- Upset: Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (+115 via DraftKings) ????
College basketball top picks
Though Boston College is disappointed being one of four teams playing on the first day of the ACC tournament, it can build on the fact that it won nine ACC games for the first time since 2011. In addition, the Eagles beat three ranked teams at home this year, the biggest being a 15-point home win over Virginia when they held the Cavaliers to a season-low 48 points.
Louisville ranks last among all ACC teams in turnover rate (22%) and should cough up the ball plenty to an Eagles defense that forces turnovers at the league's fourth-highest rate (17.4%). In addition, Boston College should dominate the paint, as the Eagles get the highest percentage of their points among all ACC teams from inside the arc and face a Cardinals defense that has been a sieve inside (ACC-worst 54.2% 2-point shooting allowed).
We do not mind paying slightly extra in juice at FanDuel as it is the only sportsbook offering the Eagles at a line lower than -6.
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Merrimack knew what it was signing up for when it changed from Division II to D-I, as the NCAA declares those teams ineligible for postseason play for the first four years after the transition. However, from a motivation standpoint, we are siding with the Warriors, who are looking to double down on their NEC regular-season title.
Not only does FDU need to overcome the mental hurdle of preparing for a game that does not affect its postseason chances, but there could be complacency, having already beaten Merrimack twice in the regular season. However, the Warriors' only loss since Jan. 17 is to FDU (they are 12-1 in that span), and the NEC's top defense in adjusted defensive efficiency, turnover rate (26.1%), and 3-point percentage allowed (31.5%) should grind out a victory on its home floor.
DraftKings is the only sportsbook with lower Moneyline odds than the -165 opening number.
There may not be a bigger talent gap in any conference tournament semifinal than in this one between Binghamton and Vermont. The Catamounts cruised to two easy regular-season victories over the Bearcats by 36 combined points, and their 13-game winning streak is the third-longest active streak in the country.
While these teams' second meeting of the season featured 16 more points scored than the first, we expect Vermont to use its top-ranked America East defense to put the clamps on in a do-or-die tournament setting.
After allowing 80-plus points for the second time in three games in an underwhelming two-point overtime victory at NJIT on Feb. 18, Vermont has improved its points against total in four consecutive games. Though the Catamounts have smashed the Over to the tune of a 12-3 record while playing on equal rest as their opponents this season, this is still a three-star play, as the Under is 17-13-1 in their conference tournament games since 2010.
Florida State was under .500 for the first time in ACC play since 2016. But the Seminoles still won their first-round ACC tournament game that year, and we expect veteran head coach Leonard Hamilton to lead them to another victory.
FSU won its only regular-season meeting against Georgia Tech by 11 points in Tallahassee. After the Yellow Jackets raced out to a 16-7 early lead, the Seminoles scored 67 of the following 102 points. FSU shredded the Yellow Jackets' multiple defensive looks, assisting on 23 of 30 made field goals.
The Seminoles are 0-4 ATS at neutral sites this year, but Georgia Tech's failure to cover three of its previous four ACC tournament games has us encouraged that Florida State will secure the outright upset.
College basketball best bets made 3/7/2023 at 6:18 a.m. ET.
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