A whopping 16 of the AP poll's top 25 teams are in action Thursday as we enter the later rounds of conference tournaments. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Thursday based on the top NCAAB odds.
Today is an excellent preview of what next Thursday will be like for the first round of the NCAA tournament, as 14 games tip off by 2:30 p.m. ET.
The noon ET games featured the top seeds from the Big East and ACC (Marquette and Miami, respectively), who will set out to prove their regular-season titles were no fluke.
Thursday's slate is loaded with 57 conference tournament games, though no NCAA tournament tickets will be punched as no league championship games are on tap.
Here are our college basketball best bets for Thursday (odds via FanDuel, PointsBet, and DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Thursday's college basketball conference tournament schedule and odds
- Iowa State vs. Baylor (-4.5)
- TCU (-2) vs. Kansas State
- Arkansas (-1.5) vs. Auburn
- Penn State vs. Illinois (-2.5)
College basketball conference tournament best bets for Thursday
- Spread: UConn -6.5 vs. Providence (-120 via FanDuel) ???
- Moneyline: Michigan ML vs. Rutgers (-162 via FanDuel) ????
- Total: Penn State-Illinois Under 141 (-110 via PointsBet) ???
- Moneyline: TCU ML vs. Kansas State (-130 via DraftKings) ???
College basketball top picks
UConn finished the regular season on an 8-1 tear and played some of the most impressive basketball of any team in the country in that span. As a result, many analytical sites took notice, like Bart Torvik's customizable efficiency ranks, which pegs the Huskies as the second-best team in the country since the calendar turned to February.
Conversely, after not losing any of its first 15 home games, Providence dropped the final two home games of the season, including shockingly being blown out by 24 points by Seton Hall. The Friars' advantage over most Big East teams is their ability to dominate the backboards (second in the league with a plus-6.9 rebound differential). However, the Huskies are the only team better than them on the glass (plus-9.0 rebounding differential) and will negate Providence's biggest strength.
In addition, UConn guard Jordan Hawkins has scored 20-plus points in four of the last five games despite shooting 14-of-47 (29.8%) from 3-point range in that span, which is a testament to his efficiency in the mid-range and his ability to get to the foul line.
Few teams have fallen from virtual NCAA tournament lock to more likely NIT-bound than Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights lost six of their final eight games, and the two victories in that span were by a combined four points while scoring fewer than 60 points in each. The losing ways have coincided with guard Mawot Mag's season-ending ACL injury, as the team misses his versatility on offense and defense.
Two weeks ago, Michigan stormed into Jersey Mike's Arena, one of the best home-court advantages in the Big Ten, and held Rutgers to its second-lowest scoring output of the season (45 points).
And while the Scarlet Knights are struggling to find offense, Michigan has a path to easier offense with center Hunter Dickinson, who has averaged 18 points in his last three games against Rutgers (on a combined 21-of-36 shooting) and recorded double-doubles in two of those.
This is a solid four-star play, as Rutgers' poor free-throw shooting continues to be an issue, making just 38 of its last 60 attempts as a team (63.3%) over the previous four games.
Penn State and Illinois' two regular-season meetings featured 133 and 174 combined points scored. Nittany Lions guard Jalen Pickett went off in the second meeting, scoring 41 points (second-most of his career) while dishing out eight assists. Penn State made 10-of-18 3-pointers in the first half and shot 57.9% from the field in that contest, too.
However, the Nittany Lions are always bound to have massive swings offensively from game to game, considering they shoot 3-pointers at the fifth-highest rate in the country (48.2% of their shots are from beyond the arc).
Brad Underwood's Illinois squad is the best team in Big Ten play at defending inside the arc (46.7%), but we expect his defense to extend more on the perimeter while not exposing itself much inside.
This is a three-star play, as the Under is 11-8-1 in Illinois' 20 conference games this season and has cashed in three of Penn State's four games at a neutral site.
Kansas State's Jerome Tang deserves plenty of Coach of the Year votes, taking a team that was projected to finish dead-last in the Big 12 to 23 wins and an 11-7 league record. However, the worrisome thing about the Wildcats entering postseason play is their inability to consistently win away from Bramlage Coliseum, as their only road win since Jan. 14 was against an Oklahoma State team that tied for the second-fewest home wins in the conference.
TCU has won three of five games since getting leading scorer Mike Miles Jr. back healthy. We expect the Horned Frogs to feast on a Kansas State defense that allows the highest percentage of offensive rebounds in Big 12 play (31.5%) and ranks in the bottom half of the league in 2-point shooting percentage allowed (51.3%). In contrast, TCU ranks fifth and first in those categories, respectively.
College basketball best bets made 3/9/2023 at 6:13 a.m. ET.
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