It's postseason play from here on out as the college basketball regular season has concluded. Read on for our college basketball best bets for Monday based on the top NCAAB odds.
Two more tickets to the NCAA tournament will be punched Monday as the Sun Belt and Southern Conference play their championship rounds. Elsewhere, the two AP top-25 teams in action are Saint Mary's and Gonzaga, as they are favored to win their West Coast Conference semifinal matchups and meet for the third time this year in the tournament championship.
Here are our college basketball best bets for Monday (odds via BetMGM, Caesars, and DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Monday's college basketball conference tournament schedule and odds
- BYU vs. Saint Mary's (-6)
- San Francisco vs. Gonzaga (-14)
- Northern Kentucky vs. Youngstown State (-3)
College basketball conference tournament best bets for Monday
- Spread: Northern Kentucky +3.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Youngstown State ???
- Moneyline: Weber State (-130 via Caesars) vs. Sacramento State ????
- Total: Gonzaga-San Francisco Over 159.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ????
- Upset: Milwaukee (+130 via DraftKings) vs. Cleveland State ????
College basketball top picks
Though Youngstown State won the Horizon League regular-season title with a 15-5 league record, Northern Kentucky was one of three teams just behind the Penguins at 14-6, so there is no significant talent gap. These two teams split the two regular-season meetings, and we would make this more confident than a three-star play if the Norse did not lose to the Penguins by 18 on the road in the last meeting.
Northern Kentucky is a nightmare for Youngstown State, as its matchup zone doesn't allow the Penguins to be as isolation heavy on offense as they'd like. Defending Youngstown State comes down to slowing down leading scorer Dwayne Cohill, who has made better than 44% of his 3-point attempts and 86% of his free throws this year. However, the Norse limited him to just three free-throw attempts and 0-for-4 from beyond the arc in the last meeting.
We expect Northern Kentucky's big-game experience (it appeared in four of the previous six conference championship games) to pay off in this semifinal.
BetMGM is the only sportsbook offering the Norse at +3.5, as other sportsbooks like FanDuel are as low as +2.5.
Weber State's two wins this season against Sacramento State were nearly identical (50-48 and 52-49). The Wildcats use their elite size (two players are 6-feet-11 on their frontline) to force opponents to shoot over the top of their defense, which is not Sacramento State's forte, as it ranks 250th in 3-point rate.
The Hornets shot a combined 12-for-50 from 3-point range in the two losses to the Wildcats. Thus, this is a solid four-star play for Weber State to complete the season sweep, as Sacramento State once again has no path to offense after ranking dead-last in effective field-goal percentage and turnover rate (19.4%) in league play.
Weber State's Moneyline odds have ballooned to -139 at other sportsbooks, but we would play it up to only -150 for value's sake given how tight the other two meetings were.
Gonzaga has been on fire offensively of late. In its last nine games against non-Saint Mary's opponents, the Bulldogs have averaged 95.8 points per game. One of those games was a 99-point eruption at home against San Francisco, in which the Bulldogs scored a blistering 1.36 points per possession despite shooting just 6-of-20 from 3-point range.
Meanwhile, San Francisco has scored 80-plus points in five of its last seven, and the playmaking abilities of guards Khalil Shabazz and Tyrell Roberts should lead the Dons to offensive success against a Bulldogs defense that ranks 243rd or worse in effective field-goal percentage, 3-point shooting percentage, and 2-point shooting percentage allowed.
This is a four-star play as the Over has cashed in 19 of Gonzaga's 30 games and five of San Francisco's nine games before which it had just one day off. Once again, we find the best value at BetMGM, the only sportsbook that has dipped below 160 from an opening number of 160.5.
This four-star play goes against the old adage that beating a team three times in the same season is difficult, as Milwaukee swept Cleveland State by 13 combined points in the regular season, including in the season finale.
The Vikings are a difficult team to watch offensively at times, as their 14-6 league record comes despite ranking seventh or worse in league play in 2- and 3-point shooting, effective field-goal percentage, and free-throw shooting (68.2%).
In addition, Cleveland State makes its living on the offensive glass (35.1% offensive rebounding percentage ranks 17th nationally), but Milwaukee tied and out-rebounded the Vikings by seven in the two meetings. Finally, Cleveland State gets the second-most percentage of its points among all D-I teams from 2-point range, but that plays right into the hands of Milwaukee and its elite rim protection that allows the 293rd-lowest percentage of opponents' points inside the arc.
College basketball best bets made 3/6/2023 at 6:22 a.m. ET.
Here are our best March Madness betting sites:
- FanDuel: No Sweat First Bet up to $1,000 | Read our FanDuel Review
- Caesars: Earn Up to a $1,250 Bet Credit | Read our Caesars Review
- DraftKings: Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets | Read our DraftKings Review
- PointsBet: Earn Five Second-Chance Bets Up to $50 Each | Read our PointsBet Review
- BetMGM: Get a Bonus Bet of Up to $1,000 | Read our BetMGM Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Online Sportsbooks | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)