Let’s divert some of your attention away from the NBA and Stanley Cup finals to delve into some college basketball analysis.
If your initial reaction is that there is no need to do this so far out, especially with football talk picking up, then well, it’s time to change that handicapping approach. Since the transfer portal and NIL deals have dramatically altered the college basketball landscape, bettors also must adapt.
That doesn’t necessarily mean wagers must be made in June; it is more about being proactive by doing some summer homework and tracking player movements while the rosters are in a constant state of change. As always when playing the futures markets, periodically checking in with the odds board is vital. This makes it possible to know where the best numbers are when news breaks that might alter the board.
Write down May 11th as a new date to keep in mind. That is when the portal closes to new entrants other than graduate transfers. Add @portal_updates as a must-follow Twitter account.
Here is a broad look at some of the names and teams active in the portal and their connection to the CBB futures board.
Success in the Portal
Drew Timme’s career at Gonzaga is officially over, but Mark Few should once again keep his team in contention by reloading with more big names. This time though, they are coming to Spokane from the transfer portal.
The Zags have played the college basketball version of the shell game by landing Wyoming big man Graham Ike, Steele Venters from Eastern Washington, and Crieghton point guard Ryan Nembhard. The latter's name might sound familiar as his brother Andrew was recently a key figure for the program.
Gonzaga has some of its own moving through the portal (Dominick Harris and Efton Reid both to BYU, and Hunter Sallis) but the comings are far more newsworthy than the goings.
Reports out of Spokane say the Zags will look to play an even faster offensive style with this new group of veterans. That is an important tidbit of information for futures bettors who might look at Gonzaga differently than the books and national media when the season starts.
For over a decade, Gonzaga was a popular public play because of star players like Timme, Corey Kispert and Chet Holmgren. Now all are gone, and the narrative surrounding the Zags will likely be less favorable following their blowout loss to Connecticut in the Elite Eight.
Gonzaga’s current odds are +2500 Circa and +2200 DraftKings. These are more than double what they have been in prior preseasons.
In the past, I had little interest in ever backing Gonzaga at a 7-1 price. A number in the 20-1 range is much more appealing and worth some consideration.
For those who think Ike and Nembhard can change Gonzaga’s March fortunes, wait until at least the late summer when most of the talk is on football.
Big Game Hunters
Kansas (+1300 Circa; +1200 DraftKings) bagged the top name in the portal, Hunter Dickinson, after the former Michigan big man enjoyed a number of different stops on the re-recruiting trail. 247Sports gives Kansas the top-rated transfer class. The richer get richer; good for them. Not so much for bettors who favor the favorites.
There was plenty of speculation that Dickinson would return to his Mid-Atlantic roots and transfer to Maryland, Georgetown or Villanova. Any one of those schools would have altered the futures board.
The Jayhawks should once again be in position to start the season as the top-ranked team with Dickinson and Towson transfer Nick Timberlake joining returners Kevin McCullar, Dajuan Harris and K.J. Adams. This core can offset the losses of Gradey Dick and Jalen Wilson. For added depth, Kansas also brought on Arterio Morris (Texas) and Parker Braun (Santa Clara). Right now there is no reason to back the Jayhawks before the season starts or when the action first tips off.
The presence of multiple short favorites — Duke (+1600 Circa; +1100 DraftKings), Kentucky (+1800 Circa; +1300 DraftKings,) and Connecticut (+1700 Circa; +1400 DraftKings) — also atop the odds board should keep the favorites steady through the first month of the season. It’s doubtful one team will pull away from the pack and force books to lower the odds because of increased liability.
These other favorites, unlike Kansas, have been relatively quiet in the portal and will look to move forward with blue-chip recruits and returning players.
Other Big 12 Movements
Texas (+2500 Circa; +2200 DraftKings) landed perhaps the biggest name other than Dickinson with sharpshooter Max Abmas returning to his lone star roots. The former Oral Roberts star should help the Longhorns contend for a regular season conference outright championship and give bettors an option with slightly higher odds than Kansas. Texas also got a boost when Dillon Mitchell withdrew from the NBA Draft to play another year in Austin.
Before anyone considers handicapping Big 12-related futures, first the conference terrain needs to be surveyed. The expanded real estate and extended travel might create an opportunity for as many as eight teams to contend. The conference welcomes Houston, BYU, Central Florida and Cincinnati while Oklahoma and Texas already have one foot out the door on their way to the SEC.
If this travel and continuity create some chaos, then a team such as West Virginia (+5500 DraftKings; +4300 Circa) could be a longshot to examine.
Bob Huggins’ offseason mishap trumped the work he did in the portal prior. That might turn some less than detailed public-minded bettors off from the Mountaineers. Huggins will miss a few games at the start of the season, but, for the most part, that controversy has dissipated. When the coach returns, he will have a veteran, transfer-heavy roster to contend with.
The new names include Kerr Kriisa, the 3-point bomber from Arizona and long-armed Syracuse shot blocker Jesse Edwards. They will join a pair of New York City-tough guards in Omar Silverio and Jose Perez. Having Edwards in the middle should accelerate the WVU defense with pressure from their guards.
If the Mountaineers can take care of business in Morgantown, one of the hardest trips to make, and ride Kriisa and Edwards to some surprise wins, they could contend in a conference that should see the big names knock each other off on a weekly basis. Just look at what Kansas State did last year, challenging for a regular-season crown based on the contributions of transfers.