Will the Los Angeles Clippers win a third straight on the road, or will the Miami Heat even the season series with a home victory? Our Clippers vs. Heat NBA player props are based on the best NBA odds.
The Los Angeles Clippers have climbed to the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, and at 32-15, the team is just one game back of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves for the top spot in the conference.
Los Angeles has won two in a row and eight of the last 10. Conversely, the Miami Heat have lost seven of their last 10 and have sunk to the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference with a 26-23 record.
The Clippers beat the Heat 121-104 in Los Angeles on Jan. 1, but Miami was missing Jimmy Butler. He will be available tonight, and both teams' injury reports are relatively clean. Regardless of who emerges victorious, we've got three player prop s ready to rock for this Sunday evening showdown.
Here are our best NBA player prop predictions for the Clippers vs. Heat matchup (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Clippers vs. Heat NBA player prop predictions
- Paul George Over 2.5 three-pointers (-120 via bet365) ????
- Bam Adebayo Over 10.5 rebounds (-115 via bet365) ????
- James Harden Over 8.5 assists (+104 via FanDuel) ????
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Clippers vs. Heat player props
George has averaged just 1.8 triples per game over his last six, and the line for this prop has fallen much further than it should. George has hit this prop in 30 of 44 games on the season, and he's done it in 11 o f 15 games since January 1. George has hit 3.5 three-pointers per game at home compared to 3.3 on the road this season.
At 3.4 per game, PG is knocking down his most triples per game in five seasons and the second most of his career. His 41.2% clip from beyond the arc ties his career best, and he's in a great spot tonight against the Heat. Miami allows the 10th most three-pointers to opponents this season (13.5) and the third most at home (14).
The Heat also allow opponents to shoot 37.9% from three at home, which is the fifth highest in the Association. Over the last five seasons, George has hit at least three triples in all five of his matchups with the Heat, averaging four per tilt. We'll take the Over on this poorly priced line tonight.
On the season, Bam is averaging a career-high 10.6 boards per game, so he'll simply need to be average tonight to cash this prop. Bam has hit this mark in four stra ight and six of his last seven. The big man has pulled down at least 11 rebounds in 23 of 39 games.
Over his last seven matchups with the Clippers, he's grabbed at least 11 rebounds six times and averaged 12.3. Adebayo pulled down 15 rebounds in his first matchup with the Clippers on January 1, but as mentioned above, Jimmy Butler sat that one out.
Adebayo has averaged 10.6 boards with Butler in the lineup and 10.7 with Butler sidelined, so the difference in production is negligible. The Clippers allow the fifth fewest rebounds to opponents, but we're not worried about the matchup.
The New York Knicks and Phoenix Suns allow the fewest rebounds per game to opponents, and Adebayo has pulled down at least 11 rebounds in four of five matchups against those two teams.
Just like George, Harden's recent performances have caused this line to fall a bit too low. We can get it at 7.5 for s ome ridiculous juice (-160), but FanDuel offers it at 8.5 for plus-money. This one is a no-brainer. Harden has dished at least nine dimes in only one of his last four outings, but since January 1, he's averaged 9.4 assists per game and hit this mark in 11 of those.
Over his last seven matchups with Miami, Harden has hit this mark three times and averaged 8.1 assists per game. He handed out 10 assists against the Heat his first matchup with them this season.
Miami allows the fourth most assists per game at home (27.7), and Harden should have no problem finding teammates such as George, Terance Mann, Norman Powell and Kawhi Leonard for some three-point buckets.
The return of big man Ivica Zubac would provide Harden a nice interior outlet, too. We'll close out our props tonight with another Over.
Clippers-Heat NBA player props made Sunday at 10:45 a.m. ET.
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