It's an all-Southern affair between the Tigers and the Wildcats in Friday's Gator Bowl, and we have you covered with our Clemson vs. Kentucky prediction based on the best college football odds.
Clemson (8-4) surely hoped its season would end differently after it entered the campaign ranked in the top 10. Additionally, Clemson won't feature its full team on Friday against Kentucky (7-5) in the 2023 Gator Bowl.
The Tigers won four straight games to close the regular season but will be without several key players against the Wildcats. Meanwhile, Kentucky will be at mostly full strength for their eighth consecutive bowl appearance under head coach Mark Stoops.
As part of our look at all college bowl game odds, here is our best Clemson vs. Kentucky prediction and our college football picks for Friday's Gator Bowl (odds via our best college football be tting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Clemson vs. Kentucky prediction: Gator Bowl
For a brief moment in late November, it looked like Mark Stoops would be the next head coach at Texas A&M. Instead, his 11-year reign at Kentucky will continue on Friday – and he'll have nearly his full complement of players at his disposal.
The Wildcats have lost just one key starter (defensive edge Keaten Wade) from a team that started 5-0 before facing a meat-grinder of an SEC schedule. Many of Kentucky's best players, including QB Devin Leary and NFL-bound back Ray Davis, won't be with the team in 2024 but are playing Saturday in what Leary is calling “one last ride” for him and his teammates.
Davis, in particular, is the engine for a Wildcats offense that ranks poorly among traditional metrics thanks to its deliberate pace. Don't be fooled: despite sitting at 98th in total offense (334.6 YPG), Kentucky ranks 58th in EPA/play – even higher than Clemson (78th) – and seventh in explosiveness behind Davis, whose 20 touchdowns this season are the most in school history.
Clemson's defense is elite in many ways, but it struggled to prevent explosives and wrap up in the open field throughout the 2023 season. And that was before the mass exodus of talent over the last month.
Of the dozen Tigers opting out of Friday's Gator Bowl, seven of them – including potential first-round picks Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (LB), Nate Wiggins (CB), and Ruke Orhorhoro (DT) – are on the defensive end. Clemson will trot out two true freshmen at cornerback, which is a tough ask for a unit that lives in man coverage.
Conversely, Kentucky's defense has been great at preventing big plays but struggled to slow down opposing passing attacks. That won't be a major issue against sophomore QB Cade Kl ubnik, who has been uneven all season and will be without one of his top receivers in Beaux Collins (510 yards, 3 TDs).
Clemson much prefers to pound the rock with the duo of Phil Mafah (894 yards) and Will Shipley (798), who will both be available Friday. Yet that plays right into the hands of a Kentucky defense that ranked in the top 25 in yards per carry and rushing EPA/play allowed.
All of that is good enough for me to take the points in this one. Then consider that Clemson is 2-4 ATS and SU in its last six games against SEC teams – despite being favored in five of them – while Kentucky boasts a perfect 7-0 record (6-1 ATS) in its last seven vs. the ACC, including three outright wins as the 'dog.
This feels like an awfully familiar setup here: a perennial contender laying points against a historic doormat with more motivation and a more complete roster, to boot. The betting market is starting to catch on th is time, but there's still value at this number.
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Clemson vs. Kentucky best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky +5 | Kentucky +4.5 | Kentucky +4.5 | Kentucky +5 | Kentucky +5 |
| -110 | -110 | -105 | -110 | -110 |
The best value on this game was Kentucky +7 at open, but you can still grab the Wildcats at +5 at three of our five best sports betting sites – a number that could continue to drop further as kickoff nears.
My preference among those three books is bet365, which tends to offer the best number at a -110 price more often than not. That said, I'd recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to see which bonuses are available at those books.
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Clemson vs. Kentucky odds
Clemson vs. Kentucky odds analysis
Clemson opened this game as a 7-point favorite, but a dozen transfers and opt-outs – including seven across its elite defense – pushed the market in favor of underdog Kentucky, which is dealing as short as +4.5 across our best sports betting apps.
The total has also dropped since opening at 47.5, with two of our best sportsbooks – Caesars and bet365 – hanging a total of 45.5. If you like the Under, FanDuel is playing its usual outlier role with a total of 46.5 and -110 juice both ways.
Gator Bowl game info
- When: Friday, Dec. 29 at noon ET
- Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville
- How to watch: ESPN
- Weather: 53 degrees, 10-mph winds, 0% chance of precipitation
Clemson-Kentucky prediction made Wednesday at 12:35 a.m. ET.
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