The Cincinnati Bearcats (3-1) visit Jones AT&T Stadium to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders (3-1) on Sep. 28 in Lubbock, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.
Texas Tech is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech Over/Under is 58.5 total points.
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Cincinnati vs Texas Tech Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas Tech will win this game with 59.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Cincinnati and Texas Tech, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Cincinnati vs Texas Tech Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas Tech will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Cincinnati Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cincinnati has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- Cincinnati have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+1.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- Cincinnati has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- Cincinnati has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)
Texas Tech Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Texas Tech has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 57% ROI)
- Texas Tech has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Texas Tech has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- Texas Tech has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Texas Tech has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Cincinnati players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cincinnati Player Prop Bets Today
- Corey Kiner has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 95% ROI)
- Xzavier Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas Tech players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texas Tech Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Behren Morton has hit the Passing Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Tahj Brooks has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Behren Morton has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Coy Eakin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
Cincinnati Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Cincinnati is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Cincinnati is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 16.85% ROI
- Cincinnati is 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
- Cincinnati is 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Texas Tech Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas Tech is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.15 Units / -26.14% ROI).
- Texas Tech is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.71% ROI
- Texas Tech is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI
- Texas Tech is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI
Cincinnati is 7-9 (.438) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 30th-worst in FBS; Average: .632
Cincinnati is 3-9 (.250) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .470
Cincinnati is 3-6 (.333) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .622
Cincinnati is 3-6 (.333) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .538
Texas Tech is 7-2 (.778) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .604
Texas Tech is 6-1 (.857) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .622
Texas Tech is 6-1 (.857) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .547
Texas Tech is 8-2 (.800) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .620
Texas Tech’s offense has thrown for 1,276 passing yards in 4 games (319.0 YPG) this season — 11th-best among FBS offenses. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 248.5 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Texas Tech’s offense has thrown for 1,276 passing yards in 4 games (319.0 YPG) this season — 11th-best among FBS offenses. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 248.5 passing yards per game this season — 31st-worst among FBS defenses.