With a trip to Las Vegas for this year's Super Bowl up for grabs, the Baltimore Ravens will host the Kansas City Chiefs in Sunday's AFC Championship. Our Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction based on the best NFL odds expects the heavyweight matchup to deliver.
To be the best, you have to beat the best.
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens know that when they host Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs for Sunday's AFC Championship Game. Not only will this be the first playoff meeting between the two superstars, but it will be the first time in NFL history that two former league MVPs under 30 have faced off in the postseason.
Mahomes holds a 3-1 advantage in the all-time series, but Jackson, a Super Bowl MVP odds favorite, is coming off a win when the two teams last met in Baltimore back in 2021.
The Ravens, who have been among the Super Bowl odds favorites, are hosting the AFC title game for the first time in franchise history and hoping the crowd will be a factor on Sunday. But will it be enough to defeat a Chiefs team that is getting hot at the right time?
As part of our Conference Championship Odds breakdown and to accompany our Super Bowl predictions, here is our best Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chiefs vs. Ravens prediction
There has been much debate about how good Baltimore's defense truly so far this week. While the Ravens rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA and among the league leaders in EPA, the counterargument appears to be the uninspiring list of opposing quarterbacks. The reality is, both arguments carry some weight.
Simply put, no defense is good enough to stop the best quarterback in the league. Mahomes will absolutely put up numbers on Sunday, and likely push his team down the field for quality drives. I just believe Baltimore's top-ranked scoring defense will rise to the occasion in the red zone, where the team ranks second in the league with a 40.8% touchdown rate allowed.
That means Andy Reid might opt to settle for multiple field goals in this one, especially considering Butker is arguably the second-best kicker in the league. Butker went 33-for-35 on field-goal attempts in 2023, clearing this particular prop in 10 of his 17 games.
This Over has gone from +100 to as much as -127 at some of our NFL prop betting sites, so it's worth taking advantage of this -105 value at ESPN BET.
This was my pick earlier in the week, and while the spread has been juiced a bit at most of our best sportsbooks, I still like betting on the Ravens at anything below a field goal in the first half.
The Ravens are typically a team that comes out hot in the Jackson era. Baltimore is 51-29-2 ATS in the first half with Jackson under center. They will certainly do so in front of a raucous crowd during their first home AFC title game in franchise history.
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Chiefs vs. Ravens best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | ESPN BET |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 FGM | Over 1.5 FGM | Over 1.5 FGM | Over 1.5 FGM | Over 1.5 FGM |
| -115 | N/A | -135 | -127 | -105 |
It's delightful to see so many of our best sports betting apps offering kicker props, illustrating how much sports betting has grown in recent years. There are more markets being released in such a competitive industry.
Bettors are better off for this, as we can price shop and take advantage of some solid discounts. In this case, ESPN BET is well off market with a -105 offering on Over 1.5 field goals for Butker. This line should be priced closer to -120, so take advantage while you still can.
Chiefs vs. Ravens odds
Chiefs vs. Ravens odds analysis
The Ravens opened as 3-point favorites, and the market quickly took advantage by hitting the home team with plenty of action. The line has now moved to 3.5 or 4 at our best sports betting sites. We expect to there to be buy-back on the Chiefs later in the week.
The total has mostly remained at 44.5 at this point, despite there being more action on the Over.
Chiefs vs. Ravens game info
- When: Sunday, Jan. 27 at 3 p.m. ET
- Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: 44 degrees, 13-mph winds, 79% chance of precipitation
Chiefs-Ravens prediction made Thursday at 2:50 p.m. ET.
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