The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots meet for the sixth time since 2017, and we offer our best Chiefs vs. Patriots NFL player props for Week 15 based on the best NFL odds at our best sportsbooks.
The Kansas City Chiefs fell to 8-5 following last week's 20-17 loss to the Buffalo Bills, their worst start through 13 games since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback in 2018. The Chiefs have lost back-to-back games for the first time since September 2021, and their lead in the AFC West has been trimmed to one game. The skid has seen the Chiefs' Super Bowl odds and Mahomes' NFL MVP odds lengthen considerably.
The New England Patriots still own the AFC's worst record (3-10) and point differential (-103) but are coming off a 21-18 upset victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football last week. The Patriots have endured their first 10-loss sea son since 2000 (Bill Belichick's first season as head coach) and have not won back-to-back games in 20 games (5-15 in that span).
In addition to our NFL Week 15 predictions and NFL Week 15 player props, here are our best Chiefs vs. Patriots NFL player props for Week 15 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chiefs vs. Patriots NFL player props: Week 15
Patrick Mahomes is having the worst season of his career by most measures as a starting quarterback. His 23-11 TD-INT ratio is his worst through 13 games in his career, and he has thrown at least one interception in at least nine games with one or fewer passing touchdowns in five.
Mahomes' 7.0 yards per attempt this season ranks 16th among quarterbacks, and his 13 completions of 20-plus air yards are tied for 23rd. In addition, he is averaging the fewest passing yards per game (261.4) and has the lowest passer rating (93.3) of his career since being named starter.
Kansas City's offensive struggles are largely because it is tied for the most offensive penalties (61), which consistently puts it behind the chains. In addition, New England ranks in the top 10 in the league in passing points allowed per attempt, and it held the quartet of Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Justin Herbert, who all rank in the top 11 in the league in passing yards, to an average of 227 yards per contest.
All of our best sports betting apps are in unison with the 247.5-yard projected total, but using our bet365 bonus code – SBRBONUS – is the only way to get less than -115 in juice to back the Under.
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Kansas City Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon has scored a touchdown in two of the last three games, and fantasy football pundits know this is his time to shine, as he finished third among all running backs with 23.3 points per game last year in the fantasy football playoffs. McKinnon should be a frequent target out of the backfield for Mahomes, as Chiefs wide receivers average 139 re ceiving yards per game (ranks 21st), and they have an NFL-worst 20 drops (five more than any other team).
However, McKinnon should contribute in more ways than merely as a pass catcher. He is coming off his first rushing touchdown of the season and a season-high in carries last week, and that should continue with fellow running back Isiah Pacheco looking on the wrong side of questionable after having not practiced this week.
Bettors will likely find McKinnon's anytime touchdown scorer odds at plus money when they become available at our best sports betting sites. However, we are looking for a much bigger payday with McKinnon to score the game's first touchdown. Considering Kansas City is an eight-point favorite and has -265 odds to win the “Race to 10 Points” at DraftKings, it is a good bet a Chiefs player will score the game's first touchdown.
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Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe has been held without a touchdown pass in just one of six career starts. However, this year's squad has averaged an NFL-worst 13.0 points per game this season (the fewest since the 2011 Rams) and faces a Chiefs defense that allows an NFL-low 3.0 scoring plays per game (per Sharp Football Analysis).
We expect Bill Belichick and the offensive coaching staff to continue to ride running back Ezekiel Elliott, who has 40.2 fantasy points over the last two weeks and whose 29 touches in Week 14 were his most since 2019. In addition, Elliott's 27.0 fantasy points last week were his most since Week 1 of 2020.
Kansas City has held opposing quarterbacks without a touchdown pass in just two of 13 games this season. Still, this game's Over/Under is so low (37 points is the third-lowest total of the week) that it is worth taking a flier on Zappe to go without a touchdown pass at plus-money odds at our best sportsbooks.
Furthermore, the O/U for New England's team total touchdowns is 1.5 (the Under is juice to -150 at DraftKings). Thus, we are enticed by the +120 odds at DraftKings and bet365 (BetMGM has the next-closest odds at +115) that the Patriots' lone touchdown (if they score one or fewer) will come on the ground.
Chiefs vs. Patriots player props made Thursday at 6:12 a.m. ET.
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