The Kansas City Chiefs (2-0-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (1-1-0) on Sep. 22. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Chiefs vs. Falcons Over/Under is 46.5 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs. Falcons Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 65.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+8.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Skyy Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.75 Units / 74% ROI)
- Samaje Perine has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Longest Rush Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bijan Robinson has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Rondale Moore has hit the Longest Reception Under in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.10 Units / 29% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Array | 42.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 |
| Array | 51.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 |
| Array | 13.5 -115 | 13.5 -115 |
| Array | 29.5 -115 | 29.5 -115 |
| Array | 18.5 -115 | 18.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Array | 19.5 -110 | 19.5 -120 |
| Array | 74.5 -110 | 74.5 -120 |
| Array | 38.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 |
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 17 of their last 19 games (+14.75 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 10 away games (+2.90 Units / 26% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 8 games at home (+2.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+1.60 Units / 19% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Chiefs went 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.65% ROI).
- Chiefs are 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 45.98% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-0 when betting the Over for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Chiefs are 0-2 when betting the Under for -2.2 Units / ROI
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Falcons went 1-1 (-0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Falcons are 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 5.08% ROI
- Falcons are 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
- Falcons are 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Chiefs are 9-2 (.818) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 15 s since the 2023 season — 5th-highest in NFL.
The Chiefs are 9-4 (.692) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .285.
The Chiefs are 16-6 (.727) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .298.
The Chiefs are 5-3 (.625) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .264.
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Falcons are winless (0-5) when allowing 27 or more points since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .164.
The Falcons are 2-11 (.154) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.
The Falcons were 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.
The Falcons were 2-5 (.286) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .443.
Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have been successful on 49.4% of plays they have ran against a base front this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed their opponents to be successful on 54.5% of plays with a base front this season — worst in NFL.