The Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) on Oct. 2. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Tampa.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -2 (-110).
The Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 45 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs. Buccaneers Prediction for Week 4
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 4 game with 58.8% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread this Week 4 with 53.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Chiefs and Buccaneers, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Mecole Hardman has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling has hit the Receptions Over in his last 5 away games (+5.30 Units / 81% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire has hit the Carries Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.65 Units / 40% ROI)
Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for Week 4, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Cole Beasley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Mike Evans has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 62% ROI)
- Mike Evans has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Cole Beasley has hit the Receptions Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- Russell Gage has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.35 Units / 29% ROI)
Chiefs Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+8.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 1Q Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+6.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in 14 of their last 19 games (+6.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2H Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.90 Units / 26% ROI)
Buccaneers Betting Trends: ATS, Moneyline, Over/Under
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+9.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 3Q Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.75 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs have gone 1-2 (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).
- Chiefs are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.3 Units / -4.35% ROI
- Chiefs are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers have gone 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.69% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 18.52% ROI
- Buccaneers are 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
- Buccaneers are 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Chiefs were 5-1 (.833) vs top 10 pass defenses last season — tied for 4th-best in NFL; League Avg: .471.
The Chiefs were 5-1 (.833) vs top 10 defenses last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .447.
The Chiefs are 6-1 (.857) since Week 11 — tied for 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chiefs are 5-2 (.714) vs top 10 defenses since the 2021 season — 7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .445.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Buccaneers were undefeated (6-0) vs top 10 pass defenses last season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .471.