We're making our best Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction for Super Bowl 2024 based on the best NFL odds from our best Super Bowl betting sites, including our favorite bet on the spread, total, and props for Super Bowl 58.
As if there wasn't enough drama in their first championship clash in 2020, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers meet again in Super Bowl 2024, which kicks off Feb. 11 at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas.
The 49ers (-2) lost the first matchup but remain betting favorites for this year's rematch after leading our Super Bowl odds for weeks. They'll have to find an answer for Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, the favorite by our Super Bowl MVP odds, who beat San Francisco to win his first Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LIV.
Kansas City also won the Big Game last year, which marked Mahomes' first game as a playoff underdog. He 's since won two straight games outright in that spot, and our Super Bowl predictions expect a similar outcome on Super Bowl Sunday.
In addition to our best Super Bowl player props and Super Bowl odds boosts, here is our best Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction for the Super Bowl and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction: 2024 Super Bowl
Best odds: -145 via BetMGM
In a game with enough Super Bowl prop bet odds to make your head spin, this one stands out above the rest, and it's my single favorite way to wager on Super Bowl 2024.
I've been writing extensively for years about this Super Bowl prop, which has now cashed in four straight years and seven of the last eight title games. This isn't a recent phenomenon, either, as the shortest touchdown has been Under 1.5 yards in 36 of 57 Super Bowls overall.
Even so, our best sports betting sites continue to offer this bet anywhere from -135 to -145 in recent years. That features an implied probability of just 59.2% – lower than the 63.2% hit rate over the 57-year history of the Super Bowl and well short of the 70% mark over the last 30 seasons.
Some of our best sportsbooks have caught on this year, with Caesars (-155) and FanDuel (-170) both offering more aggressive prices on the Under. Yet the folks at BetMGM remain caught on this price – even with two high-powered offenses facing favorable matchups against so-so run defenses on the other side.
These two teams combined for three goal-line touchdowns when they met in 2020, and the Chiefs and Eagles each punched it in from one yard out in last year's Super Bowl. I'd be shocked if we don't see another sho rt score in Super Bowl 58.
Best odds: -115 via FanDuel
bet365 is offering a boost from +375 to +450 for the Chiefs to win and Travis Kelce to record 75-plus receiving yards with a touchdown. Don't forget to use our bet365 bonus code! Offer excludes Ontario.
When we recommended this bet earlier in the week, the Chiefs were trading at +2 across our best sports betting apps. Now they're trading at +2.5 via FanDuel and at some prominent shops in Las Vegas, which makes it even easier to bet on the defending champions.
I get why the 49ers are favored – if they weren't, books would get crushed by sharp money betting on the NFL's best team from the regular season. That said, Kansas City finally looks like the championship squad we've been expecting since Week 1, with an elite defense and an offense that seemingly has answers to every problem.
I'm also skeptical of San Francisco's ability to survive four quarters against the Chiefs, which we saw in Kansas City's comeback win in Super Bowl LIV. Don't be surprised if we see Brock Purdy throw at least one interception (+100 via BetMGM), which could prove to be the difference on Super Bowl Sunday.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM
We've been eyeing the Over on this game since the Super Bowl matchup was first set. Clearly, we aren't alone, as John Ewing of BetMGM shared Tuesday that the Over is the most popular choice by far among those betting the total:
San Francisco's offense is the NFL's best by advanced metrics, and Mahomes is the best quarterback on the planet. I have more faith in a Chiefs win than I do in a high-scoring affair, but I've already wagered on both myself.
The biggest risk here is Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo putting Purdy in a blender and rendering Kyle Shanahan's offense inoperable. Yet these teams (and coaches) faced off in 2020 and still combined for more than 50 points, as they have in all three meetings in the Mahomes era.
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Best Super Bowl odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | Under 1.5 | Under 1.5 | Under 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| -145 | -170 | -145 | -155 | -145 |
As mentioned above, the shortest TD prop is seeing Under 1.5 yards priced as short as -170 across our best NFL prop betting sites, but we have our eyes on the -145 odds for a prop that's cashed in seven of the last eight years.
Three of our best live betting sites are hanging -145 odds on the Under, and our choice among them is BetMGM, which is also offering some compelling bonuses ahead of Super Bowl 2024. I highly recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos to get the most out of your wager for Super Bowl 58.
Chiefs vs. 49ers odds
Chiefs vs. 49ers odds analysis
The 49ers opened at -2.5 over the Chiefs shortly after this Super Bowl 58 matchup was set. But the early action came in on the defending champions, who could be bet as short as +1 across our best Super Bowl betting sites within an hour of the NFC Championship ending.
Then came the buyback on the Niners, who are now dealing at -2 at four of our five best sportsbooks and as short as -2.5 at FanDuel. I would expect this line to keep moving throughout the week, but if you're hoping for Chiefs +3, I wouldn't hold your breath.
The betting total saw some early movement after the AFC and NFC Championship games ended, but it's now dealing at a consensus 47.5 across the board. We briefly saw that drop to 47, which was the lookahead line for this matchup, but it seems like the total has settled in the days ahead of Super Bowl 58.
Super Bowl game info
- When: Sunday, Feb. 11 at 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: Indoors
49ers-Chiefs prediction made Saturd ay at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Here are our best Super Bowl betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)