The Los Angeles Chargers (6-9) visit Empower Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos (5-9) on Dec. 31. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Denver, CO.
The Broncos are betting favorites in this Week 17 matchup, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).
The Chargers vs. Broncos Over/Under is 38.5 total points for the game.
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Chargers vs. Broncos Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Broncos will win this Week 17 game with 71.2% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Broncos will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.
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Best Chargers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chargers players this Week 17 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Gerald Everett has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.35 Units / 77% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the TD Passes Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Josh Palmer has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+5.55 Units / 35% ROI)
- Justin Herbert has hit the Passing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.70 Units / 51% ROI)
Best Broncos Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Broncos players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Courtland Sutton has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- Russell Wilson has hit the TD Passes Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Russell Wilson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 41% ROI)
Chargers Best Bets:
- The Los Angeles Chargers have scored first in 15 of their last 20 games (+9.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.55 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 22 games (+6.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Chargers have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.20 Units / 17% ROI)
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+7.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+7.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.40 Units / 33% ROI)
Chargers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chargers went 6-9 (-3.9 Units / -23.42% ROI).
- Chargers are 5-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.25 Units / -29.18% ROI
- Chargers are 5-10 when betting the Over for -6 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Chargers are 10-5 when betting the Under for +4.5 Units / ROI
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos went 5-9 (-4.9 Units / -29.52% ROI).
- Broncos are 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.05 Units / -5.04% ROI
- Broncos are 7-8 when betting the Over for -1.8 Units / -10.91% ROI
- Broncos are 8-7 when betting the Under for +0.3 Units / 1.82% ROI
Los Angeles Chargers: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Chargers are winless (0-3) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns since Week 13 — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .509.
The Chargers are 1-6 (.143) when scoring less than 22 points this season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .253.
The Chargers are 1-5 (.167) vs top 10 pass defenses this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .447.
The Chargers are 4-8 (.333) when making less than 3 explosive runs in a game this season — T-6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .442.
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers
The Broncos are 6-2 (.750) when forcing at least one fumble this season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .624.
The Broncos are 1-6 (.143) when not forcing a fumble this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .419.
The Broncos are 4-3 (.571) when sacking the QB 3 or more times this season — T-9th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .651.
The Broncos are winless (0-3) when allowing more than 50% of third down conversions opportunities since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .255.