It's a quick turnaround in the UEFA Champions League for the teams fighting for a place in the final four of the competition. Read on for our Champions League picks and predictions for the quarterfinals second leg based on the best soccer odds.
Manchester City appear to be the only side with both feet firmly in the next round, but can Bayern Munich make up the three-goal deficit against Erling Haaland and Co.? Real Madrid head to London with a two-goal cushion over Chelsea. Each of Karim Benzema's last 11 Champions League goals have come against English teams, including Chelsea last week. A 12th will almost certainly guarantee the reigning European champions a place in the semis.
Runaway Serie A leaders, Napoli, were shocked on the road to Italian rivals, Milan, last week. With the tie in Naples, Napoli will look to close the 1-0 advantage held by the Rossone ri knowing no team in this season's competition have scored more goals than them.
Could it be an all-Italian semi-final? Inter host Benfica on Wednesday with a 2-0 lead. Only Napoli and Manchester City (25) have scored more than the Portuguese outfit (23).
Here are our best Champions League bets for the quarterfinals second leg (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook); pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our soccer picks.
Champions League matches and odds this week
(Odds via DraftKings)
- Chelsea (+185) vs. Real Madrid (+145)
- Napoli (-135) vs. Milan (+390)
- Bayern Munich (+175) vs. Manchester City (+145)
- Inter (+110) vs. Benfica (+245)
Champions League best bets
- Parlay: Real Madrid to wi n and Karim Benzema to score (+259 via FanDuel) vs. Chelsea ???
- Prop: Napoli to win by two goals (+360 via DraftKings) vs. Milan ???
- Total: Bayern Munich vs. Manchester City Under 2.5 goals (+146 via FanDuel) ???
- Prop: Inter vs. Benfica both teams to score no draw (+160 via DraftKings) ????
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Top Champions League picks
Real Madrid have progressed from 18 of their 19 Champions League ties after winning the first leg by two or more goals. They beat Chelsea at this stage of the competition last season and have beaten the Blues in two of their last three encounters.
Chelsea is a club in crisis. The team is without a win in six games in al l competitions and has only scored two goals in its last five. Frank Lampard has lost all three of the matches he's overseen since being hired as interim manager.
Real Madrid has the third highest xG of all the remaining teams in the Champions League. Their reigning Ballon d'Or winner, Karim Benzema, is worth a play in this match. His last 11 Champions League goals have come against English teams, while his last 14 have all been in the knockout stages of the competition, the longest run by a player in Champions League history. Benzema has 14 goals and two assists for Real Madrid in his last nine appearances in the knockout stages.
For Chelsea to win they must score goals, but even owner Todd Boehly can't buy those at the minute. Real can afford to invite pressure and hit them on the break, with their French forward finding the net in a road win.
If this game was in Madri d, I'd give it four stars. I'm still confident in this play, with form working in our favor.
Napoli are unbeaten in their last 12 Champions League home matches (nine wins) since a 4-2 defeat to Man City in November 2017. They've won their four home games this season, scoring at least three goals in each victory.
Napoli have already lost twice to Milan in April, losing 4-0 in Serie A at home and 1-0 at San Siro in the first leg of this tie. The last side to beat them three times in one season was Lazio in 1994-95.
No team has scored more goals than Napoli (25) in this season's Champions League with the highest xG of all the remaining teams (23). They're 14 points clear at the top of the Serie A table and have 22 more points than Milan. In the domestic league, they're averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Piotr Zielinski has been involved in five goals in four home appearances for Napoli in the competition this season (three goals, two assists), scoring or assisting every 49 minutes. With the Serie A title race all but wrapped up, expect Napoli to come out hot. Their form at home this season is exceptional, especially their goal scoring.
It's a play I'm very confident in backing, and we can cash in big with these odds.
This tie is over. City head to Munich with a 3-0 lead, which is too big an advantage for the German giants to overcome. Only four teams in Champions League history have progressed from the knockout rounds after losing by three or more goals in the first leg.
Manchester City have the highest pass completion rate under pressure of any team in this season's competition (86.4%). Pep Guardiola's side have also completed the highest number of passes under pressure th is term (3,802 in nine matches). Expect them to maintain possession and force Bayern to chase the game.
The Sky Blues have the lowest xGA of all the quarterfinalists (5.5). Bayern's xG of 17.2 ranks in the bottom half of the last eight teams in the competition, therefore they're going to find it difficult to score. Guardiola's side have an FA Cup semi-final at the weekend, followed by a Premier League title clash with Arsenal next week. With a 3-0 advantage, he can afford to let his players take it easier than in recent matches.
It could be a dull spectacle for the neutral, but we can cash in with the few chances created.
Benfica are currently unbeaten in seven away matches in the Champions League (four wins). This is their longest ever unbeaten run away from home in the competition. They have won their last two away matches and could win three in a row for the first time since March 1990. Only Manchester City and Napoli (25) have scored more goals than the Portuguese outfit (23) in the tournament this season.
Benfica have already won away to Italian opposition in the current campaign, beating Juventus 2-1 during the group stages.
Keep an eye on 21-year-old forward Goncalo Ramos. He's been directly involved in four goals in his last four Champions League appearances for Benfica (three goals and one assist). He's also applied more pressures (674) and pressures in the final third (299) than any other striker in the competition this season.
Inter have the highest xGA (12.1) of all the teams competing in the quarterfinals. Although they did well to hold off Benfica in the first leg, the Portuguese giants must attack to make up the two-goal deficit. Inter are vulnerable at the back and I expect Benfica to score.
The Italians have firepower too and could capitalize on Benfica being left exposed in defense as they chase the game. Romelu Lukaku has scored nine goals in 14 appearances for Inter in the Champions League, with only four players now scoring more goals for the club in the competition.
This could become an open game with goals from both sides. We don't care who wins, so long as there's a winner. Inter would settle for a draw, but Benfica's attack is too much of a threat for them to sit on their aggregate lead. This tie works to our advantage for this play and is worthy of the four-star treatment.
Champions League best bets made 04/17/2023 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
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