CFB recap Week 3: Oklahoma to win the National Championship?

T Shoe Index Team Adjustments After Week 3

After a 2-1 week on best bets in college football, it’s almost time to gear up for one of the best slates of the college football season. Before we can make informed bets for Week 4, we need to evaluate how teams’ power ratings adjusted after their performances in Week 3. It is important to keep in mind that from a power rating standpoint, at least for my T Shoe Index, a team’s rating adjustment week-to-week isn’t just about the latest game, but a culmination of the season to date as preseason priors are phased out – more quickly in my formula than in others in the industry that I’ve talked to about this. Now that the methodology explanation is out of the way, let’s get to who’s rising and who’s falling in the TSI.

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Teams I Upgraded in the T Shoe Index

I would be remiss not to start this segment with my new number one team in the entire country: the Oklahoma Sooners. Sure, their schedule has not been very strong, but that’s the great thing about the opponent-adjustment of the TSI; all the data points matter and are standardized to what the average FBS team would be expected to do in a given matchup. No one has exceeded that standard more than Oklahoma, who has performed at a level 36 points above FBS average. 

For context, historically, National Championship-caliber teams have been about 28-30 points above average. The Sooners have throttled Arkansas State, SMU (who’s in the TSI Top 25), and Tulsa by a combined score of 167-28. Don’t let the schedule so far fool you, Oklahoma is for real. Worth a look: the Sooners are still +4000 at DraftKings to win the National Championship. I’m not saying they’re going to win it, but 40/1 odds might be enough to sprinkle some pizza money on them. 

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