After back-to-back wins by the Boston Celtics, the Miami Heat are hoping to wrap up the Eastern Conference Finals at home during Saturday's Game 6. Read on for our Celtics vs. Heat prediction based on the best NBA odds.
Well, this just got interesting.
After facing a 3-0 deficit, the Celtics have clawed back into the series with consecutive victories. Now all the pressure is on the Heat, who desperately need to win Game 6 at home to avoid the Eastern Conference Finals being decided in Boston for Game 7.
No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs, but could we be on the verge of seeing history? The best sports betting apps seem to believe so, listing Boston as a road favorite ahead of Saturday's Game 6 in Miami.
Here is our best Celtics vs. Heat prediction (odds via our Draft Kings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Celtics vs. Heat prediction
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This is where the Celtics' magical run comes to an end.
Bettors might be scared of betting on Miami to win outright after the last two games, but context is key. ShotQuality's post-game model actually graded Game 4 as a 110-107 win for the Heat based on shooting expectations, meaning the Celtics were probably a bit fortunate in their 116-99 victory.
But that is the entire reason getting down 0-3 in the series is seemingly impossible to overcome. The Celtics simply have no margin of error, and one poor shooting night (or an above expectations performance from the Heat ) could end this series.
The Celtics might be as equipped as anyone to make history, but there is a reason why the previous 149 teams have failed in this situation. In fact, only three of those teams have even forced a Game 7.
Miami doesn't want this series going back to Boston, which is why this will essentially be a Game 7 for head coach Erik Spoelstra and star guard Jimmy Butler. I don't mind the idea of betting on that tandem at a plus-money price with everything on the line.
Let's also keep in mind that Miami was a 1-point home favorite in Game 4 on Tuesday. The betting market believed the Celtics had given up, so I think we are getting some value based on their hot shooting effort the last time these two teams squared off in Kaseya Center.
Take advantage of the market's overcorrection. The Heat are still series favorites fo r a reason at our best NBA betting sites. They should finish the job on Saturday, punching their ticket to the NBA Finals with a win.
Celtics vs. Heat best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heat ML | Heat ML | Heat ML | Heat ML | Heat ML |
| +125 | +124 | +120 | +122 | +120 |
Our best sports betting sites have made Miami a home underdog, despite listing this team as a favorite in a similar spot ahead of Game 4.
The Heat still have a chance to finish the job, and we are betting that they will do just that. At anything +115 or better, consider playing Miami on the moneyline instead of taking the points.
Celtics vs. Heat odds
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Celtics vs. Heat odds analysis
The spread hasn't really moved at our best live betting sites, with the Celtics still trading as 3-point road favorites ahead of Game 6. The total has dropped down to 211 after opening as high as 213.5 at the best sportsbooks.
Celtics vs. Heat game info
- TV: TNT
- Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Celtics-Heat pick made 05/26/2023 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
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