The St. Louis Cardinals (-115) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Cardinals vs Pirates Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cardinals are 92-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 81-79 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 54.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Quintana has hit the Earned Runs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+15.30 Units / 48% ROI)
- Albert Pujols has hit the Runs Over in his last 6 games (+8.30 Units / 138% ROI)
- Adam Wainwright has hit the Strikeouts Under in his last 8 games (+8.25 Units / 79% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Brendan Donovan has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 32 of his last 57 games at home (+12.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- Kevin Newman has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 38 of his last 57 games at home (+9.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.25 Units / 57% ROI)
- Zack Collins has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.10 Units / 86% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 14 away games (+10.20 Units / 60% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 87-73 against the Run Line (+8.65 Units / 4.33% ROI).
- 92-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 2.65% ROI
- 75-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.4 Units / -7.59% ROI
- 80-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.05 Units / -1.17% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 81-79 against the Run Line (-5.05 Units / -2.56% ROI).
- 61-99 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.45 Units / -8.06% ROI
- 73-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.2 Units / -6.92% ROI
- 78-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.95 Units / -1.1% ROI
Dakota Hudson: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 19% (107/568) against Dakota Hudson this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 31% (105/337) against Dakota Hudson with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.
Dakota Hudson has a strike rate of just 55% (401/735) when ahead in the count this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (52/325) against Dakota Hudson this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 24% — fourth Percentile.
Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryse Wilson has a strikeout rate of just 15% (124 SO in 816 PAs) since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitless in 22 AB’s against Bryse Wilson with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .148 — 100th Percentile.
Bryse Wilson has allowed a slugging percentage of .496 (367 Total Bases / 740 ABs) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .400 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (23/132) against Bryse Wilson on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.