The St. Louis Cardinals (+125) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-150) on Thursday, September 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Cardinals vs Padres Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cardinals are 86-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 65-82 ATS.
Cardinals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Cardinals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s matchup with 53.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cardinals and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cardinals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jose Quintana has hit the Earned Runs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+13.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.30 Units / 44% ROI)
- Harrison Bader has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 16 away games (+9.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+9.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 30 games (+13.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+13.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 35 games at home (+12.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 34 games at home (+11.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 31 games (+10.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 10 of their last 20 games (+3.20 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 14 of their last 24 games (+6.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.05 Units / 71% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 73% ROI)
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 82-67 against the Run Line (+10.65 Units / 5.71% ROI).
- 86-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.65 Units / 2.61% ROI
- 69-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.75 Units / -7.81% ROI
- 74-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -0.92% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 65-82 against the Run Line (-23.15 Units / -12.65% ROI).
- 82-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.75 Units / -4.4% ROI
- 69-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.8 Units / -7.89% ROI
- 75-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.8 Units / -0.49% ROI
Jack Flaherty: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jack Flaherty has allowed an OBP of .412 (34 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has a first-pitch strike rate of just 49% (35/71) this month (3 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 63% — third Percentile.
Jack Flaherty has a strike rate of just 60% (161/269) this month (3 games) — tied for 11th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 65% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .333 (10-for-30) against Jack Flaherty with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .164 — first Percentile.
Joseph Musgrove: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .274 (17-for-62) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .339 — 93rd Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,275/2,958) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 93rd Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (609/1,450) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 26% (174/672) against Joe Musgrove on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — sixth Percentile.