Cardinals-Red Sox prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, May 12

The St. Louis Cardinals (13-25) hit the road for a three-game set against the Boston Red Sox (22-16) starting on Friday, May 12. First pitch from Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Adam Wainwright (0-0, 7.20 ERA) will look to bounce back for St. Louis, while the southpaw James Paxton makes his 2023 debut and pitches his first game in a Boston uniform after battling a hamstring injury this spring.

The Red Sox are the home favorites with -120 moneyline odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cardinals are the +100 underdogs, with the run total set at 10.5.

Cardinals

Out: LF Tyler O'Neill (back), RP Packy Naughton (forearm)

Red Sox

Out: SP Garrett Whitlock (elbow), RP Joely Rodriquez (oblique), 2B Christian Arroyo (hamstring), SS Yu Chang (wrist)

Adam Wainwright vs. James Paxton

Waino has only made one start this season after suffering an injury during the 2023 World Baseball Classic. He got rocked by the Detroit Tigers in what was expected to be a favorable matchup. Wainwright allowed four earned runs on eight hits in only five innings of work. He struck out five and didn't issue any walks, but he didn't factor into the decision.

Paxton hasn't pitched since April of 2021. Injuries have derailed his career, and the 34-year-old is trying to prove he has more left in the tank. He hasn't pitched a full season since 2019 when he started 29 games for the New York Yankees. Paxton finished that year with a 15-6 record and a 3.82 ERA.

Barring the game in Colorado, this matchup has the highest run total of the day. Expectations are that Paxton and Wainwright will be hittable and struggle to keep the ball in the yard in the hitter's paradise of Fenway Park. While I tend to agree, this is just a slightly high run total for me, so I am leaning the under.

Pick: Under 10.5

The Red Sox are the narrow favorites at home. With only six appearances over the last three seasons combined, I feel Paxton will struggle. I think this will lead to St. Louis picking up a much-needed win as they try to right the sinking ship that started the 2023 season.

Pick: Cardinals

  
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