Cardinals-Dodgers prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, April 28

Two NL blue-bloods collide for a weekend set, as the St. Louis Cardinals wrap up their West Coast swing with a trip to face the Los Angeles Dodgers. First pitch from Chavez Ravine is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Jack Flaherty (2-2, 3.29 ERA) takes the mound for the Redbirds while Dustin May (2-1, 3.07) goes for L.A.

Los Angeles is currently a -130 favorite on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Cardinals are narrow +110 underdogs. The run total is set at 8.5.

Cardinals-Dodgers picks: Friday, April 28

Cardinals

Out: SP Adam Wainwright (groin strain), RP Wilking Rodriguez (right shoulder), RP Packy Naughton (left forearm strain)

Dodgers

Day-to-day: C Will Smith (concussion)

Out: SP Michael Grove (groin), SS Miguel Rojas (hamstring), DH J.D. Martinez (back), SP Ryan Pepiot (oblique), SP Jimmy Nelson (elbow), 2B Gavin Lux (knee), RP Daniel Hudson (ankle), RP Blake Treinen (shoulder), SP Walker Buehler (elbow), RP JP Feyereisen (shoulder), RP Alex Reyes (shoulder)

Jack Flaherty vs. Dustin May

Flaherty's ERA is a shiny 3.29, but there are concerns under the hood for the one-time ace. His walk rate is at a career-high right now, and his 5.20 expected ERA suggests he's been getting plenty of batted-ball luck. Some days Flaherty has his old, mid-90s velocity and sharp slider back, while other days he's sitting more 92 and loses his feel. He's also been torched by lefties to the tune of a .271/.379/.521 slash line, and that could spell trouble against a Dodgers team that's currently third in team OPS against righty pitching.

May still feels like he's trying to lock in a bit after a long injury layoff, but the results are hard to argue with. His K/9 is below six at the moment, but he's allowed two or fewer runs in four of his five starts so far this season after slogging through 5.1 innings in the rain at Wrigley Field last weekend. May largely works with a variety of fastballs and a curveball, all of which he keeps out of the middle of the plate, and he could be a handful against a Cardinals offense struggling against righties right now.

These are two scuffling lineups right now, and while Flaherty gives some pause, there's also a chance that he shows up with his A stuff and keeps the Dodgers off the board. Either way, I expect May to chew up the Cardinals' right-handed sluggers and help keep this a low-scoring game.

Pick: Under 8.5

It's just hard to trust Flaherty over May right now, especially with L.A. at home and licking their wounds after two straight losses to the Pittsburgh Pirates. With how well the Dodgers have hit righties this year, give me the home favorites.

Pick: Dodgers

  
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