Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud looks to keep his dream rookie season alive as they visit the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Divisional Round, and we offer our best C.J. Stroud NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.
Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud led Houston to its most wins and first division title since 2019. Stroud was an integral part of a complete turnaround of a franchise that went from finishing last in the AFC South a year ago to a division title this year, and Houston made history as the first team in the Super Bowl era to win a division with both a rookie quarterback and rookie head coach (DeMeco Ryans). In addition, Stroud was the youngest quarterback to start and win a playoff game in NFL history last week when his Texans beat the Cleveland Browns.
The Baltimore Ravens earned the AFC's No. 1 seed after a 13-4 regular season. It earned every bit of that home-field advantage by topping an AFC North division that was the first division since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to have all its teams finish with a winning record. Baltimore is the most likely team to emerge from the AFC by our Super Bowl odds, but will they get out of the conference? To help your Super Bowl predictions, here are the latest 2024 Super Bowl odds from our best sports betting apps.
The Ravens finished the regular season strong with six consecutive victories before resting their starters in a Week 18 loss. As part of that winning streak, they became the second team in NFL history to win consecutive games by 14-plus points, both against teams that entered the game with 10 or more wins.
To accompany our NFL Divisional Round predictions and our Texans vs. Ravens prediction, here are our best C.J. Stroud NFL player prop predictions for the Texans vs. Ravens Divisional Round matchup (odds via our best NFL betting s ites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
C.J. Stroud NFL player prop predictions for the Divisional Round
- C.J. Stroud Over 34.5 passing attempts (-120 via bet365) ???
- C.J. Stroud longest completion Over 36.5 yards (-115 via DraftKings, bet365) ????
- C.J. Stroud most passing yards (-143 via BetRivers) ???
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C.J. Stroud player props
The narrative that C.J. Stroud is a rookie and, therefore, is not likely to find success in the playoffs is a tired one, especially after his performance last week. Stroud set an NFL rookie playoff record with three passing touchdowns, and his 199 passing yards were the most by a rookie in the first half of a playoff game since the merger, per PFF. The fact that Stro ud accomplished that without two of his three leading receivers and his starting right tackle and center against a defense that was No. 1 in total defense makes it more impressive.
Stroud seems to save his best performances for the biggest games, even dating back to college, as he has six touchdowns and 573 yards in the 2022 Rose Bowl and 348 yards and four touchdowns in the 2022 Peach Bowl. And since returning from concussion protocol, Stroud has completed 60 of 79 passes for 751 yards, compiled a 6-0 TD-INT ratio and 130.3 passer rating, and won all three of his starts.
DeMeco Ryans and the coaching staff likely know that their best chance to win is to let Stroud air it out. He was held to a 34.9 QBR in Week 1 by the Ravens (his second-lowest QBR of the season), but with 16 starts now under his belt, we expect him to be even more comfortable in the offense, and we expect him to snap a five-game streak without attempting 35- plus passes.
FanDuel and BetRivers offer plus-money odds to back the Over of 35.5 passing attempts for Stroud if you are so inclined. Still, we are comfortable paying up slightly at the lower number at bet365, as our other best sportsbooks charge a slightly higher -125 price.
When the Texans faced the Ravens in Week 1, 31 of Stroud's 44 pass attempts traveled nine or fewer yards or were behind the line of scrimmage. Stroud attempted just two passes of 20-plus air yards and did not complete either, while his longest completion was 26 yards. However, Houston has opened up the playbook and taken many more deep shots of late, and Stroud's longest completion has been at least 59 yards in three of his last five starts.
Per Next Gen Stats, Stroud is the only player with 1,000 or more passing yards and zero interceptions on deep throws this season while ranking second in completion percentage (58.8%), pas sing yards (1,057), TD-INT ratio (8-0), and passer rating (142.8) on deep passes. Thus, this is a four-star play, as Houston had the third-most explosive passing plays (66) this season.
Instead of wagering on the O/U for Stroud's passing yards, we prefer the value of Stroud having more passing yards than his counterpart, Lamar Jackson.
Stroud is coming off of a game where he produced a 98.4 QBR, the second-highest for any quarterback in a playoff game since 2006. And since Week 16, Stroud ranks third among all quarterbacks in QBR. Entering Wild Card Weekend, Stroud had a 38.8 QBR against man coverage (27th) but a league-leading 73.9 QBR against zone.
We expect Houston to continue to be aggressive on early downs, as it ranks in the bottom seven in early down passing frequency, but has had a 60% success rate or better on early down passes the last two weeks. We are only making this a three-star play, as the Ravens are sixth in EPA per play among all teams for the past 10 seasons. But despite Baltimore's defense leading the league in sacks in the regular season (60), we still expect the Texans to be aggressive through the air, and game script could also play a role in cashing this wager with the Ravens being 9.5-point favorites.
We are making this wager at BetRivers, as FanDuel charges a slightly higher -148 price for this wager.
C.J. Stroud player prop picks made Thursday at 6:24 a.m. ET.
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