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The BYU Cougars and SMU Mustangs are a combined 3-0 heading into this Week 2 battle, and each will look for arguably their biggest non-conference win of the season in this Big 12-ACC matchup.
BYU is looking to start strong in its second year as a member of the Big 12, just like it did when it won four of its first five games last year.
My BYU vs. SMU predictions take into account the fact that the Cougars covered easily as two-touchdown favorites in a 41-13 win over Southern Illinois last week.
Meanwhile, SMU squeaked by in a 29-24 road win at Nevada in a game it trailed 24-13 entering the fourth quarter in Week 0, before a 59-7 beatdown of Houston Baptist last week.
The action rolls on all weekend, so be sure you're keeping up with our college football predictions for Week 2 for the latest betting updates.
Best BYU vs. SMU picks
College football picks based on the odds from our best college football betting sites. Odds subject to change.
- Game pick: BYU-SMU Over 55.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ???
- Player prop: Preston Stone Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+172 via FanDuel) ???
BYU vs. SMU prediction: Week 2
Sharps and the general public have been on both sides of this point spread, as BYU lowered from a 11.5-point underdog to 10.5 as of Tuesday morning but has since rebounded to +11.5 at all of our best sports betting sites.
It is still a curious line to make BYU a double-digit underdog given the manner in which both teams won last week, but the way both offenses played has me believing the Over is the right play and takes the curiosity of the point spread out of the equation.
It's hard to believe BYU didn't finish any game last season with 400-plus total yards of offense. However, the Cougars made up for lost time by rolling up 527 yards of total offense against Southern Illinois, including five rushing plays of 10-plus yards and eight passing plays of 15 or more yards.
And if one is dismissing those feats based on the fact that Southern Illinois is an FCS school, they should know it started the season ranked 11th in the FCS Coaches Poll and beat FBS schools (Northwestern and Northern Illinois) in each of the last two seasons.
After settling for two field goals and a short 51-yard touchdown drive in the first half against Nevada, SMU's offense took over in the fourth quarter, with touchdown-scoring drives of 98 and 83 yards. That momentum carried into last week's win over Houston Baptist.
The total is up from an opening number of 54.5 (with 65% of the bets siding with the Over), and is as high as 56.5 at BetMGM. Thus, the best number and price is at FanDuel, where a $10 winning wager would pay out $19.09.
Best odds: -110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 52.38%
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BYU vs. SMU player prop
SMU quarterback Preston Stone overcame a shaky first half against Nevada to throw for 231 yards in the second half. It was only a matter of time before the passing attack got going, as Stone is one of three returning Power Four quarterbacks who posted a 4.5 TD:INT ratio and 9.0-plus yards per attempt last year.
Stone also performs well when pressured, as his 78.5 grade under pressure (per PFF) was second to Florida's Graham Mertz among returning quarterbacks. He ended last season with a 17:1 TD:INT ratio over the final seven games with 286.6 passing yards per game in that span.
The 36.76% implied probability for this wager seems low considering he has an implied 61.54% chance to throw at least two touchdowns with DraftKings' -160 odds. Thus, I am backing this three-star play with a $10 wager in the hopes of returning $17.20 in profits.
Best odds: +172 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 36.76%
BYU vs. SMU odds
See all of this week's college football odds and NCAAF scores.
BYU vs. SMU game info
- When: Friday, Sept. 6
- Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 90 degrees, 14% chance of precipitation, wind 11 mph NNE
- Favorite: SMU (-440 via DraftKings)
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