Indiana hosts Milwaukee with a chance to close out this first-round series on Thursday, as we offer our best Bucks vs. Pacers player props and expert picks based on the best NBA odds.
After staving off elimination in Game 5, the Milwaukee Bucks (49-33) could return some familiar faces for a must-win Game 6 against the Indiana Pacers (47-35). That matchup tips off Thursday at 6:30 p.m. ET and will be broadcast live on TNT from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Ind.
The Pacers are 8-point favorites across our best sports betting sites to beat the Bucks, who blew out Indiana at home on Tuesday to keep their dwindling NBA championship odds alive. That win came without Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) and Damian Lillard (Achilles), both of whom are questionable to suit up Thursday.
We likely won't know the status of either Milwaukee star until shortly b efore tipoff. Instead, we're focusing on the value present on the Pacers' side in a critical close-out spot.
Here are our best Bucks vs. Pacers player props and NBA picks for Game 6 (odds via our
best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bucks vs. Pacers Game 6 player props
- Tyrese Haliburton Under 9.5 assists (+105 via BetMGM) ???
- Myles Turner Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-102 via DraftKings) ???
- Andrew Nembhard Over 16.5 points + assists (-105 via DraftKings) ???
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Bucks vs. Pacers prop bet predictions for Thursday
Have the Bucks cracked the code on Haliburton? After the Pacers star averaged 12 assists through the first three games of this series, he's combined for just 10 over the last two games with Patrick Beverley as his primary defender.
It's not just the basic stats, either. Haliburton averaged 22.3 potential assists through Game 3, but that's dropped to 11.0 per game over the last two games – even fewer than teammate Andrew Nembhard (11.5), whom we'll discuss more later.
These +105 odds imply a 48.78% chance that he falls below 10 assists for a third straight game, per our odds converter, and would pay out $20.50 in total on a $10 wager if he does. That feels like nice value after the adjustments we've seen from Milwaukee.
Best odds: +105 via BetMGM
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After averaging 26.7 points and 4.7 made threes in the Pacers' three wins, Turner took a step back in Game 5 with 13 points and just one triple on four attempts. I'd be surprised if that continues in a critical Game 6.
Before Tuesday's loss, Turner had made at least three 3-pointers in every game this series. Even with that performance, he's still averaging 2.7 made threes over his last 15 games while clearing this mark in eight of them – including a prolific 7-for-9 showing from deep in his last game in front of his home crowd.
I buy the overall defensive adjustments by Milwaukee in Game 5, but this is a modest bar to clear for Turner, especially if he plays more than his series-low 30 minutes in Game 5.
Best odds: -102 via DraftKings
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We highlighted Nembhard earlier in this series, and he's been the clear X-factor for Indiana with 15.8 points and 5.3 assists over his last four games.
The former second-round pick has been a revelation on both ends of the court, agitating the Bucks' key players defensively while serving as a secondary playmaker alongside Haliburton. He ranks third on the team in average plus-minus (plus-5.2) through five games, and his potential assists over the last two games (11.5) rank first.
These -105 odds imply a 51.22% hit rate with a $19.52 payout on a $10 wager. Nembhard has cleared this total in four straight games, and I like his chances of doing that again on Thursday.
Best odds: -105 via DraftKings
Bucks vs. Pacers Game 6 info & odds
- When: Thursday, May 2
- Tip-off: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Gainbridge Field house
- How to watch: TNT
- Favorite: Pacers -8 (-110 via bet365)
Bucks-Pacers player props made Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET.
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