The top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks will try to even up the series in Monday's Game 4 against the eighth-seeded Miami Heat. Read on for our Bucks vs. Heat prediction based on the best NBA odds.
In the most surprising series of the opening round, the Bucks are in a 2-1 hole ahead of a road battle with the Heat on Monday. Giannis Antetokounmpo, the league's best player, is expected to return after sitting out back-to-back games with a back injury.
With the return of Giannis, and the Heat dealing with their own injuries, the Bucks are favored by multiple possessions on the road. But we are turning to the player prop market to find the best value for this matchup.
Here is our best Bucks vs. Heat prediction (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bucks vs. Heat prediction
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Last week, we cashed an Over on Vincent's assist prop in our Heat-Bucks preview. Now, it is time to take an Under on his combo prop of points, rebounds, and assists. Such is life when betting on the NBA Playoffs.
As Sportsbook Review's Jon Metler recently explained in a Twitter thread, we want to take advantage of narratives and recency bias when betting on player props in the postseason. I think that's the case here, as Vincent's PRA prop is a touch higher than normal due to him clearing this number in two of the three games in this series.
For the season, Vincent averaged a total of 13.9 points, rebounds, and assists. He has cleared this number just 23 times all year. Over the last 30 g ames, Vincent has topped 17.5 PRA on nine different occasions.
Injuries to Tyler Herro and now Victor Oladipo will force more usage for Miami's remaining role players. Still, Vincent has had only one game in which he took more than six shot attempts and one contest when he played more than 21 minutes. In a blowout win for Miami in Game 3, Vincent finished with two points, two assists, and one rebound in 18 minutes of action.
We would project a bounce-back showing for Vincent, but not as much as the market seems to believe. NumberFire projects 9.8 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 3.1 assists, giving us a solid edge on this Under at PointsBet.
Bucks vs. Heat best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Under 16.5 | Under 16.5 | Under 16.5 | Under 17.5 |
| N/A | -102 | -105 | -109 | -120 |
Three of the four best sports betting sites have set this line at 16.5, making the decision to play this prop at PointsBet a pretty easy one. PointsBet is offering the Under at -120, with the Over priced at +100.
I prefer the extra cushion at 17.5 due to how fluky rebounds can be sometimes, but this is playable to 16.5, if PointsBet juices the Under too much.
Another angle for this game worth exploring in relation to my fade of Vincent is the Over on Kyle Lowry's assist prop. Right now, his line is set at 3.5 despite a projection closer to five assists for Game 4 against the Bucks.
Bucks vs. Heat odds
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Bucks vs. Heat odds analysis
The Bucks o pened as 3.5-point favorites, but the spread has ballooned up to 7 at our best NBA betting sites since the Giannis news was announced Monday morning.
The total has dropped down to 217.5 after opening at 220 at our best sportsbooks.
Bucks vs. Heat game info
- Date: Monday, April 24, 6:30 p.m. ET
- TV: TNT
- Location: Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Bucks-Heat pick made 04/24/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
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