The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0-0) visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions (1-0-0) on Sep. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Detroit, MI.
The Lions are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).
The Buccaneers vs. Lions Over/Under is 51.5 total points for the game.
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Buccaneers vs. Lions Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Lions will win this game with 71.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 56.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Chase McLaughlin has hit the Field Goals Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.50 Units / 39% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+7.60 Units / 39% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.45 Units / 34% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Carries Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Cade Otton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)
Best Lions Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Lions players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Rush Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jahmyr Gibbs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jared Goff has hit the Passing Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- David Montgomery has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 36% ROI)
Buccaneers Best Bets:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 14 of their last 19 games (+9.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in their last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+6.80 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+5.10 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored first in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 48% ROI)
Lions Best Bets:
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 13 games (+11.10 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have covered the 1H Spread in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the 1H Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+10.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Detroit Lions have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.35 Units / 36% ROI)
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Buccaneers went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 48.78% ROI
- Buccaneers are 1-0 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Buccaneers are 0-1 when betting the Under for -1.1 Units / ROI
Lions Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL preseason, the Lions went 1-0 (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).
- Lions are 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 41.67% ROI
- Lions are 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.15 Units / -100% ROI
- Lions are 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 95.24% ROI
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Detroit Lions
The Buccaneers are winless (0-7) when allowing more than 5 yards per rush since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.
The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Buccaneers were 1-6 (.143) when losing at least one fumble last season — 4th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.
The Buccaneers were 3-1 (.750) when playing in cold weather last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Detroit Lions: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Lions were undefeated (5-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .571.
The Lions were undefeated (5-0) after a loss last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .488.
The Lions are 16-5 (.762) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2022 season — T-10th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 5 s since the 2022 season — 5th-highest in NFL.
The Lions were 3-2 (.600) when rushing less than 25 times last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .281.
Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions
The Lions have averaged 0.08 epa per play with motion since the 2022 season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed 0.03 epa per play against motion since the 2022 season — T-4th-worst in NFL.