The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1-0) visit Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons (2-2-0) on Oct. 3. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Buccaneers vs. Falcons Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.
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Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 57.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Falcons will cover the spread with 65.2% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Buccaneers Player Prop Bets Today
- Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+6.95 Units / 35% ROI)
- Chase McLaughlin has hit the Field Goals Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- Cade Otton has hit the Longest Reception Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- Cade Otton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+4.50 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Falcons players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Longest Reception Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Drake London has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+5.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.85 Units / 48% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs Buccaneers
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (Atl) | +500 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | +700 |
| Bucky Irving (TB) | +750 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Falcons vs Buccaneers
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (Atl) | -135 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | +135 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Falcons vs Buccaneers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin (TB) |
66.5 -115 | 66.5 -115 |
| Mike Evans (TB) |
60.5 -115 | 60.5 -115 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) |
25.5 -110 | 25.5 -120 |
| Rachaad White (TB) |
22.5 -115 | 22.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Falcons vs Buccaneers
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield (TB) |
10.5 -115 | 10.5 -120 |
| Rachaad White (TB) |
33.5 -120 | 33.5 -110 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) |
63.5 -115 | 63.5 -115 |
Buccaneers Best Bets:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+7.35 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 1H Spread in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in 8 of their last 9 away games (+6.90 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the Spread in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.35 Units / 22% ROI)
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games at home (+3.05 Units / 23% ROI)
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers art 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.45 Units / 37.12% ROI
- Buccaneers are 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Buccaneers are 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / ROI
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons are 1-3 (-2.4 Units / -53.33% ROI).
- Falcons are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 2.78% ROI
- Falcons are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
- Falcons are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Buccaneers are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .595.
The Buccaneers are 9-1 (.900) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Falcons has allowed an average time of possession of 31 min and 38 s since the 2023 season — 4th-highest in NFL.
The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Buccaneers are winless (0-6) when committing 2 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .295.
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons were 1-5 (.167) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .440.
The Falcons are 5-1 (.833) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: .615.
The Falcons were 2-7 (.222) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .324.
The Falcons were 4-7 (.364) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities last season — 10th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .430.
Additional Matchup Notes for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Falcons TEs have 70.9 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed an average of60.0 receiving yards per game to TEs since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.