Buccaneers vs. Falcons Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for TNF Week 5

First place is on the line in this NFC South Thursday Night Football matchup as the Atlanta Falcons host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

• The Buccaneers and Falcons have split their two regular season meetings in each of the last two seasons
• The winner of this matchup will receive a big boost to their odds to win the NFC South
• Atlanta won last week without scoring an offensive touchdown in Week 4, notching a defensive and a special teams touchdown

My Buccaneers vs. Falcons early picks and odds call for the Thursday Night Football odds favorite to cover the spread as long as the line stays under the key number.

My early Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction: Falcons -2.5

NFL picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Our NEW NFL player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any market across legal sportsbooks in your area!

Best odds: -112 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 52.83%

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Home teams always have an advantage on a short week, but Atlanta has an even bigger advantage in this matchup with this being its third consecutive home game.

Tampa Bay is being a bit overvalued after its win over the Philadelphia Eagles, as its defense allowed a season-low 227 yards of total offense. While that in isolation is impressive, it should also be noted that the Eagles were without their top two wide receivers (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith) and were not equipped to come back from a 24-0 deficit before they even converted a first down.

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Buccaneers vs. Falcons live odds

See the NFL odds from our best NFL betting sites for every Week 5 game.

• Falcons best odds: -142 via DraftKings | Implied probability: 58.68%
• Buccaneers be st odds: +135 via Caesars | Implied probability: 42.55%

There is a big 19-cent gap between DraftKings' -142 moneyline odds to back the Falcons and the -161 odds at Caesars. 

Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins has historically struggled in primetime, and those trends, coupled with Tampa Bay's big win over Philadelphia, should mean the line should go in support of the underdogs. Cousins is 59-33-2 SU in his career in the 1 p.m. E.T. time slot or earlier but has won just 20 of his 59 starts in later time slots.

• Falcons best odds: -2.5 (-112) via DraftKings
• Buccaneers best odds: +3 (-115) via Caesars

DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering a line of -2.5, while all others are firmly on the key number of three. However, given that all the +3s have a juice of -115 or higher (FanDuel's price is –120), it signals that the line is close to moving off the key number toward the underdogs as long as there is the betting support to warrant that. It would also make sense for the line to dip to -2.5, as that was precisely where the line closed in last week's Falcons-Saints matchup, and New Orleans and Tampa Bay are viewed as evenly matched.

Considering Cousins is 1-10 ATS in his last 11 indoor games, it makes even more sense for the spread to move towards the Buccaneers.

• Over best odds: 42.5 (-110) via DraftKings
• Under best odds: 43.5 (-110) via Caesars

Not only is the point spread nearly exactly identical to last week's Falcons-Saints game, but that game also had a total of 42.5 points. However, those two NFC South rivals combined for 50 points while Tampa Bay scored 33 of its own last week. Thus, DraftKings is likely to have its total bet up to match the rest of the top sports betting sites at 43.5, and that might not even be the floor for the total before kickoff.

None of the three previous meetings between these teams had a total higher than 41.5, but the Over is 2-1 in that span.

How to watch Buccaneers vs. Falcons

• When: Thursday, Oct. 3
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
• How to watch: Prime Video
• Weather: Indoors
• Favorite: Falcons -2.5 (-112 via DraftKings)

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