In Week 18, Houston pulled off what many believed throughout the regular season to be improbable by capturing the AFC South crown, and it now hosts Cleveland on Wild Card Weekend, as we offer our top Browns vs. Texans prediction based on the best NFL odds.
With their victory over the division-rival Indianapolis Colts paired with the Jacksonville Jaguars' loss in Week 18, the Houston Texans won the AFC South. They'll host a playoff game on Wild Card Weekend, as a result.
Opposing Houston is a hard-nosed Cleveland Browns team, known mostly for its suffocating defense led by Defensive Player of the Year odds favorite Myles Garrett. However, it was a revitalized Joe Flacco who led the Browns to some impressive wins to close out the regular season.
When these teams squared off in Week 16, the Browns beat the Texans 36-22 thanks to an absurd 226 receiving yards by Amari Cooper. However, C.J. Stroud was inactive for that contest.
Will Stroud and his group of young, talented offensive weapons get revenge for that embarrassing defeat, or will Flacco break the hearts of the Houston faithful once again?
As part of our NFL Wild Card Weekend predictions, here is our best Browns vs. Texans prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Browns vs. Texans prediction for Wild Card Weekend
Browns running back Jerome Ford had his worst game of the season when these teams met in Week 16, taking 15 carries for just 25 yards (an abysmal 1.7 yards per carry). However, most projections models expect him to bounce back in this postseason affair.
Across five projection models, Ford's average rushing yards projection is 51.17. When we run that against FanDuel's -114&nb sp;odds on Over 41.5 yards, we're getting nearly 12% positive expected value on this bet.
Another reason to like this bet is that FanDuel is the only one of our best sportsbooks offering a total of 41.5, with the rest at 42.5. Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, has Over 42.5 juiced to -126. Its total has been moving throughout the day since opening at 44.5 on Tuesday afternoon, though it's once again climbing after dropping down to 39.5.
Ford's rushing yards total should settle somewhere around this number, so it's possible you can wait for one of our other top sportsbooks to offer 41.5 at better odds. It's even possible it drops below that number.
Overall, this is a bet I like at the time of writing on Wednesday afternoon, but it may be one that's better suited to be tracked throughout the week and played at a potentially lo wer number than smashed immediately.
It's important to remember that moneyline, spread, and total markets are some of the most efficient in sports betting. Our best sports betting apps are sure to stay on top of any movement, and this pick was evidence of that.
When I started writing this, we had a total of 43.5 at BetRivers. That was at least half a point lower than those found at most of our best sports betting sites and a full point lower than the total offered at FanDuel and Caesars. That 44.5 total was also available at Pinnacle.
The slight edge we had on Over 43.5 is mostly gone now at 44, but there are still a couple of reasons to like this bet.
In terms of purely trying to project higher-scoring games, this Wild Card Weekend showdown comes with the benefit of being played indoors. Forecasting a total is easier when we don't have to deal with the added complication of potentially inclement weather.
The second reason there's some optimism in playing Over 44 is that it's one of the lowest totals of any game played on Wild Card Weekend. Additionally, we're still getting half a point vs. the Pinnacle line, which opened at 43.5 but quickly moved to 44.5 following some heavy action on the Over.
Therefore, that tells us there was significant sharp action by bettors believing this game will feature at least 44 points. The benefit of this number is that if that comes to fruition, even by the minimum, we end up with a push by playing Over 44 before it moves to 44.5.
I wouldn't bet this and will instead wait for our best sportsbooks to release player props for this matchup, but it's a somewhat viable bet for those looking to get in on the action early this week.
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Browns vs. Texans best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 44.5 | 44 | 44.5 | 44 |
| (-110) | (-108) | (-110) | (-110) | (-110) |
When it comes to game-related markets, there's not as much value in odds shopping as there is for player props. You might find a quarterback with a passing yards total of 10-plus yards lower or higher at one of our sites offering the best sportsbook promos compared to the others. However, as we can see by our odds table above, the majority of our best live betting sites are aligned on this total, and the same goes for the moneyline and spread odds.
As a result, any edge you find will be marginal at best. Therefore, these markets often come down to whether you believe the number is wrong. That can be based on third-party projections (likely the most efficient; let the nerds do all the work), your own in-depth analysis (congratulations on all the free time), trends (please, don't), or simply anecdotal “evidence” (you absolute sicko).
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Browns vs. Texans odds
Browns vs. Texans odds analysis
This line opened at Browns -2.5 and should see some significant movement throughout the week. As the Wild Card Weekend opener, you can expect the public to have its fingerprints all over the spread, moneyline, and total.
Therefore, tracking sharp movement – Browns -2.5 has steamed from -102 to -117 at Pinnacle – could be the key to determining when to make your bet. If you're backing Cleveland, the time to act is likely ri ght now. However, if you want to bet on the underdogs to cover, watch for potential movement to the key number of +3.5.
As far as the total goes, it's already moving. As mentioned, it now sits at 44 or 44.5 after opening at 43.5. The window to bet on the Over is rapidly closing.
Browns vs. Texans game info
- When: Saturday, Jan. 13 at 4:30 p.m. ET
- Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
- How to watch: NBC
- Weather: Indoors
Browns-Texans prediction made Monday at 1 p.m. ET.
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