The Houston Texans enter the postseason fresh off what was once an unfathomable AFC South triumph to host the Cleveland Browns on Wild Card Weekend, and we offer our top Browns vs. Texans prediction based on the best NFL odds.
The Houston Texans needed a Week 18 win against the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday to enter the postseason. Not only did they manage to do that, but the Jacksonville Jaguars lost to the Tennessee Titans a day later, leaving the Texans as the AFC South champions.
Squaring off against the Texans on Wild Card Weekend are the Cleveland Browns, led by a rejuvenated Joe Flacco and a terrifying defense.
Does Houston have enough firepower with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, rising wide receiver Nico Collins, and offseason acquisitions Devin Singletary and Dalton Schultz? Or will Myles Garrett and the Browns' ferocious defensive unit break the hearts of the home fans at NRG Stadium?
Here is our best Browns vs. Texans prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Browns vs. Texans prediction for Wild Card Weekend
It's important to remember that moneyline, spread, and total markets are some of the most efficient in sports betting. Our best sports betting apps are sure to stay on top of any movement, and this pick was evidence of that.
When I started writing this, we had a total of 43.5 at BetRivers. That was at least half a point lower than those found at most of our best sports betting sites and a full point lower than the total offered at FanDuel and Caesars. That 44.5 total was also available at Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry.
The slight edge we had on Over 43.5 is mostly gone now at 44, but there are still a couple of reasons to like this bet.
In terms of purely trying to project higher-scoring games, this Wild Card Weekend showdown comes with the benefit of being played indoors. Forecasting a total is easier when we don't have to deal with the added complication of potentially inclement weather.
The second reason there's some optimism in playing Over 44 is that it's one of the lowest totals of any game played on Wild Card Weekend. Additionally, we're still getting half a point vs. the Pinnacle line, which opened at 43.5 but quickly moved to 44.5 following some heavy action on the Over.
Therefore, that tells us there was significant sharp action by bettors believing this game will feature at least 44 points. The benefit of this number is that if that comes to fruition, even by the minimum, we end up with a push by playing Over 44 before it moves to 44.5.
I wouldn't bet this and will instead wait for our best sportsbooks to release player props for this matchup, but it's a somewhat viable bet for those looking to get in on the action early this week.
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Browns vs. Texans best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 44.5 | 44 | 44.5 | 44 |
| (-110) | (-108) | (-110) | (-110) | (-110) |
When it comes to game-related markets, there's not as much value in odds shopping as there is for player props. You might find a quarterback with a passing yards total of 10-plus yards lower or higher at one of our sites offering the best sportsbook promos compared to the others. However, as we can see by our odds table above, the majority of our best live betting sites are aligned on this total, and the same goes for the moneyline and spread odds.
As a result, any edge you find will be marginal at best. Therefore, these markets often come down to whether you believe the number is wrong. That can be based on third-party projections (likely the most efficient; let the nerds do all the work), your own in-depth analysis (congratulations on all the free time), trends (please, don't), or simply anecdotal “evidence” (you absolute sicko).
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Browns vs. Texans odds
Browns vs. Texans odds analysis
This line opened at Browns -2.5 and should see some significant movement throughout the week. As the Wild Card Weekend opener, you can expect the public to have its fingerprints all over the spread, moneyline, and total.
Therefore, tracking sharp movement – Browns -2.5 has steamed from -102 to -117 at Pinnacle – could be the key to determining when to make your bet. If you're backing Cle veland, the time to act is likely right now. However, if you want to bet on the underdogs to cover, watch for potential movement to the key number of +3.5.
As far as the total goes, it's already moving. As mentioned, it now sits at 44 or 44.5 after opening at 43.5. The window to bet on the Over is rapidly closing.
Browns vs. Texans game info
- When: Saturday, Jan. 13 at 4:30 p.m. ET
- Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
- How to watch: NBC
- Weather: Indoors
Browns-Texans prediction made Monday at 1 p.m. ET.
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