What happens when you combine what's projected to be one of the worst NBA draft classes in recent memory with a host of Europeans expected to be selected early?
A whole lot of interest in Bronny James-centered sports betting markets.
Never mind that LeBron's son was a fringe rotation player on a mediocre Pac-12 (R.I.P.) team as a freshman last season. He's going pro and, due in part to his dad hinting that he'll follow his son to whatever team drafts him, he's expected to go somewhere. (LeBron can opt out of his contract with the Lakers and become a free agent shortly after Wednesday's draft.)
On Fanatics' sports betting app, the Lakers to draft Bronny (now -145 after opening at +160) – presumably with the No. 55 pick and not their first-rounder – generated over seven times more handle in a recent 24-hour period than any other bet on the draft, including who's expected to be picked first. Meanwhile, when he will be selected – the over/under had risen to 48.5 Tuesday after opening at 40.5 – had generated nine times more handle than the first overall pick market.
As that rising line indicates, bettors have been “pounding the over” on Bronny, said Caesars Sportsbook's lead NBA analyst, David Lieberman, who's raised his projected pick number from 39.5 to 49.5.
“There seems like a pretty good sense that no one’s going to take him until the Lakers at 55,” Lieberman added.
Despite this good sense, Bronny has also been a popular bet to go first overall, despite boasting odds of anywhere from 300/1 to 500/1. According to Max Meyer, a senior editor at Fanatics, Bronny is second in ticket percentage (16%) in that market behind UConn center Donovan Clingan (26%).
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What could possibly motivate the Hawks, who hold the top pick (unless they trade it), to take Bronny that high?
“I can't see it unless you're really trying to convince LeBron to come to your team,” said Lieberman.
Tobias-Like Ceiling for First Pick?
While both Caesars (+260) and Fanatics (+250) list Clingan as their second choice to be selected first by Atlanta, Zaccharie Risacher (-275 at Fanatics, -325 at Caesars) has taken over pole position from fellow Frenchman Alex Sarr (now 6/1 at Fanatics, 7/1 at Caesars) in the past week.
“The first overall pick market, there was stronger interest last week when Sarr was the favorite,” said Meyer. “Risacher flipped him last Wednesday or Thursday. But that market’s action has really slowed down.
“I’ve seen comparisons where NBA executives are equating the first overall pick to Tobias Harris. It doesn’t exactly inspire confidence, and you’re seeing all these teams itching to trade out of the top five. There’s not the star power you normally see at the top.”
Outside of the aforementioned trio, the only legitimate top-pick contender who's seen his odds fluctuate considerably of late has been Clingan's UConn teammate, Stephon Castle. The 6'6″ guard's odds have gone from as high as 100/1 to 15/1 in the past week, and he's tied for third in Fanatics' bet ticket percentage with Risacher at 14%.
Short of such surprises, Fanatics and Caesars are in lockstep on the favorites to follow Risacher, with Sarr going second to Washington, Kentucky sharpshooter Reed Sheppard getting selected third by Houston, Castle headed to San Antonio with the fourth pick, and G-League Ignite forward Matas Buzelis going fifth to the Pistons.