Week 15 comes with an extra day of action, and we're diving into the added prime-time game with our top Broncos vs. Lions prediction for Saturday Night Football based on the best NFL odds.
In a rare Saturday Night Football matchup, the 7-6 Denver Broncos, firmly in contention for an NFL playoff spot, face off against the NFC North-leading Detroit Lions.
Both teams are deeply entrenched in the playoff race, making this game a crucial encounter with significant implications for their postseason aspirations. The Broncos, aiming to solidify their position, take on the challenge of playing against the surging Lions, who currently lead their division, setting the stage for a high-stakes battle as both teams vie for a crucial victory.
The Broncos bounced back from their road loss to the Houston Texans by destroying the Chargers in Los Angeles. Denver has won six of i ts last seven games and owns the same record as the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, Indianapolis Colts, and Texans. The AFC is officially heating up.
Meanwhile, the Lions suffered a brutal loss in Chicago in their last game, falling 28-13 to the Bears. Detroit still sits atop the division with its 9-4 record, and it'll look to rebound from that defeat with this massive primetime showdown at home.
Here is our best Broncos vs. Lions prediction for Saturday Night Football (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Broncos vs. Lions prediction: Saturday Night Football
Of course, for our top Saturday Night Football prediction, we turn our attention to known speedster Jared Goff. The Lions quarterback has recorded a blistering 21 rushing yards on 29 attempts, so you're probably wondering why we're back ing his rushing yardage total rather than his attempts. The answer is simple: value.
Eleven of the 13 starting quarterbacks to face the Broncos this year have gone Over this number, and the only two who failed to do so – Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert – didn't attempt a single carry.
Across nine different projection models, Goff doesn't have an expected rushing yards total below 2.3. Seven of the nine project Goff to run for three-plus yards, and five of those have him above 4.5 yards. NumberFire comes at a high of 6.83, and his average rushing yards projection across the nine is 4.43.
These +100 odds at bet365 suggest this is a coin-flip, while our projections tell us it's very much the opposite. I would be more hesitant to play this prop if Goff's average projection hovered around two yards, but we're getting a very comfortable cushion here.
This could be a sweat y one if the Lions are in a position to take knees at the end of the game, but the value is worth it.
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Broncos vs. Lions best odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | N/A | Over 1.5 | Over 1.5 | Over 1.5 |
| N/A | N/A | (-105) | (-106) | +100 |
Just three of our best sports betting apps are brave enough to post this market, and bet365 is the only one with better than minus money.
The shortest price is actually found at Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the betting industry. It lists Over 1.5 at -111 after opening at -105. That tells us there's been some sharp action on the Over.
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Broncos vs. Lions odds for Saturday Night Football
Broncos vs. Lions odds analysis
This spread opened at Lions -4 or -4.5, depending on which of our best sportsbooks you use. It's now sitting at -4.5 at all of our best sports betting sites.
Betting o n the total has been quite decisive, too. Roughly 61% of the action is on the Over, with the total hovering around 46.5 at most of our sites with the best sportsbook promos.
Saturday Night Football game info
- When: Saturday, Dec. 16 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
- How to watch: NFL Network
- Weather: Indoors
Broncos-Lions prediction made 12/14/2023 at 12 p.m. ET
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