The Denver Broncos (1-2-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets (2-1-0) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in East Rutherford, NJ.
The Jets are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).
The Broncos vs. Jets Over/Under is 39.5 total points for the game.
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Broncos vs. Jets Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Jets will win this game with 70.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Broncos will cover the spread with 60.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today
- Courtland Sutton has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Javonte Williams has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Marvin Mims Jr. has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Marvin Mims Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Javonte Williams has hit the Longest Rush Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jets players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Jets Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Breece Hall has hit the Receptions Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- Tyler Conklin has hit the Receptions Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.20 Units / 77% ROI)
- Breece Hall has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Tyler Conklin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 65% ROI)
- Breece Hall has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.90 Units / 28% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Jets vs Broncos
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | +400 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | +550 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Jets vs Broncos
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | -125 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | +125 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Jets vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) |
58.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) |
27.5 -120 | 27.5 -110 |
| Javonte Williams (DEN) |
14.5 -115 | 14.5 -115 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) |
43.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 |
| Josh Reynolds (DEN) |
29.5 -115 | 29.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Jets vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall (NYJ) |
65.5 -110 | 65.5 -120 |
| Javonte Williams (DEN) |
33.5 +100 | 33.5 -135 |
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 1Q Spread in 16 of their last 20 games (+10.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+9.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+7.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.75 Units / 24% ROI)
Jets Best Bets:
- The New York Jets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+3.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- The New York Jets have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos art 2-1 (+0.95 Units / 29.23% ROI).
- Broncos are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 5% ROI
- Broncos are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Broncos are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI
Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Jets are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 16.95% ROI
- Jets are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI
- Jets are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets
The Broncos are winless (0-6) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .287.
The Broncos are 4-17 (.190) when not forcing a fumble since the 2022 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.
The Broncos are 3-6 (.333) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2022 season — T-6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Broncos are winless (0-4) when allowing more than 50% of third down conversions opportunities since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .244.
New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Jets are 5-0 (1.000) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed an average of 136.3 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Jets are winless (0-7) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .427.
The Jets were winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.
The Jets were 1-3 (.250) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .427.
Additional Matchup Notes for Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets
The Jets have run successful plays on 54.8% of pass attempts against a base front this season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on 59.6% of pass attempts with a base front this season — worst in NFL.