The Denver Broncos (1-4) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (4-1) on Oct. 12. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this Week 6 matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5 (-110).
The Broncos vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 47.5 total points for the game.
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Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction
Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this Week 6 game with 80.0% confidence.
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Chiefs will cover the spread with 61.0% confidence.
Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both the Broncos and Chiefs, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.
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Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this Week 6 game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Courtland Sutton has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- Russell Wilson has hit the TD Passes Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receptions Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Russell Wilson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 41% ROI)
Best Chiefs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Jerick McKinnon has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Passing Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.50 Units / 38% ROI)
- Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 73% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Broncos
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | +450 |
| Isiah Pacheco | +600 |
| Jerick McKinnon | +800 |
| Noah Gray | +900 |
| Rashee Rice | +1100 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Chiefs vs Broncos
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | -165 |
| Isiah Pacheco | +100 |
| Javonte Williams | +125 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | +130 |
| Jerick McKinnon | +138 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Chiefs vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 12.5 -120 | 12.5 -110 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 11.5 -120 | 11.5 -110 |
| Kadarius Toney | 31.5 -120 | 31.5 -110 |
| Travis Kelce | 67.5 -120 | 67.5 -110 |
| Justin Watson | 19.5 -115 | 19.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Chiefs vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 9.5 -105 | 9.5 -125 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 70.5 -120 | 70.5 -115 |
| Russell Wilson | 20.5 -120 | 20.5 -110 |
| Javonte Williams | 39.5 -110 | 39.5 -120 |
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 9 away games (+3.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+3.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 20 games (+2.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.20 Units / 5% ROI)
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+5.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have scored first in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+3.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+2.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 12 of their last 21 games (+2.80 Units / 12% ROI)
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos went 0-4 (-4.45 Units / -80.18% ROI).
- Broncos are 1-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -66% ROI
- Broncos are 4-1 when betting the Over for +2.9 Units / 52.73% ROI
- Broncos are 1-4 when betting the Under for -3.4 Units / ROI
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs went 3-2 (+0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI).
- Chiefs are 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.9 Units / 11.31% ROI
- Chiefs are 2-3 when betting the Over for -1.3 Units / -23.64% ROI
- Chiefs are 3-2 when betting the Under for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Broncos are winless (0-5) when having a TO margin of -2 or worse since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .124.
The Broncos are 1-4 (.200) this season — tied for 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Broncos are winless (0-5) when throwing 2 or more interceptions since the 2021 season — tied for worst in NFL; League Avg: .228.
The Broncos are 8-19 (.296) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2021 season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .496.
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Chiefs are undefeated (7-0) vs bottom 10 pass defenses since the 2022 season — tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .475.
The Chiefs are undefeated (8-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .558.
The Chiefs are 4-1 (.800) this season — tied for 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chiefs are 19-1 (.950) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2021 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .565.