Broncos at Chiefs: NFL Betting Trends After Firing a Coach

On Dec. 12, 2010 – six days after the dismissal of head coach Josh McDaniels – the Denver Broncos failed to cover the spread (-4) in a Week 14 road loss to the Arizona Cardinals in Eric Studesville's first game as interim head coach.

Twelve years later, against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 17 this season, current Broncos' interim coach Jerry Rosburg – elevated after Nathaniel Hackett's dismissal on Monday, Dec. 26 -' will now attempt to do what Studesville couldn't do 12 years ago: win and/or cover in his team's first game after a coaching change.

Nathaniel Hackett is the 35th NFL head coach since 2003 fired before the end of the season. In the previous 34 instances, the team won the first game 16 times (16-18) and covered 18 times (18-16), according to Action Network's Bet Labs.

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Year Team Fired Coach Opponent Spread ML ATS
2022 Colts Frank Reich at Raiders +4.5 W W
2022 Panthers Matt Rhule at Rams +10 L L
2021 Jaguars Urban Meyer vs. Texans -6 L L
2021 Raiders Jon Gruden at Broncos +5 W W
2020 Texans Bill O'Brien vs. Jaguars -6.5 W W
2020 Falcons Dan Quinn at Vikings +3.5 W W
2019 Panthers Ron Rivera at Falcons +3.5 L L
2019 Redskins Jay Gruden at Dolphins -6< /td>

W L
2018 Packers Mike McCarthy vs. Falcons -4 W W
2018 Browns Hue Jackson vs. Chiefs +7.5 L L
2017 Giants Ben McAdoo vs. Cowboys +4 L L
2016 Jaguars Gus Bradley vs. Titans +4 W W
2016 Bills Rex Ryan vs. Jets +2.5 L L
2016 Rams Jeff Fisher at Seahawks +15 L L
2015 Eagles Chip Kelly at Giants +4 W W
2015 Titans Ken Whisenhunt at Saints +7.5 W W
2015 Dolphins Joe Philbin at Titans +2.5 W W
2014 Raiders Dennis Allen vs. Chargers +7.5 L W
2011 Chiefs Todd Haley vs. Packers +11 W W
2011 Dolphins Tony Sparano at Bills -1.5 W W
2011 Jaguars Jack Del Rio vs. Chargers +3 L L
2010 49ers Mike Singletary vs. Cardinals -6 W W
2010 Broncos Josh McDaniels at Cardinals -4 L L
2010 Cowboys Wade Phillips at Giants +11.5 W W
2010 Vikings Brad Childress at Redskins -1 W W
2009 Bills Dick Jauron at Jaguars +9 L W
2008 49ers Mike Nolan vs. Seahawks -5 L L
2008 Raiders Lane Kiffin at Saints +7 L L
2008 Rams Scott Linehan at Redskins +12 W W
2007 Falcons Bobby Petrino at Bucs +13 L L
2005 Lions Steve Mariucci vs. Vikings +3 L L
2004 Browns Butch Davis vs. Patriots +11.5 L L
2004 Dolphins Dave Wannstedt at Seahawks +9.5 L W
2003 Falcons Dan Reeves at Giants +8 L L

The moneyline win rate of 47% is dramatically better than the team's season winning percentage before that game. Those teams were collectively winning approximately 27% of their games before the coaching change.

  
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